Estudiantes de La Plata routs Universidad Catolica 3-0 in Chile to advance in Libertadores

Estudiantes de La Plata delivered a resounding blow in Chile, beating Universidad Catolica 3-0 at Claro Arena in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores round of 16. The result, combined with the 1-1 draw in the first leg in La Plata, leaves the Argentine club in the best possible position heading into the rest of the knockout tie, after a match in which it took control from the end of the first half all the way to the final whistle.

A blow right before the break

The match stayed even for much of the first 45 minutes, with both sides creating chances from distance without much real danger. Everything changed in the 43rd minute, though, when Joaquin Correa popped up from outside the box to fire a low shot that clipped just inside the left post, set up by an assist from Baltasar Rodriguez. The goal landed at the worst possible time for the home side's morale before the break, and Universidad Catolica went into the locker room down on the scoreboard despite having had stretches of territorial control.

In the second half, Estudiantes quickly extended the lead. In the 52nd minute, Guido Carrillo headed home a cross from Eros Mancuso to make it 0-2, burying the ball into the top left corner in a blow that left Universidad Catolica with no real path back into the game. The home side tried to respond with attacking substitutions, including the introductions of Sebastian Arancibia and Matias Palavecino, but couldn't seriously trouble the visiting goal. Estudiantes, meanwhile, put the game away in the 82nd minute: after a free kick taken by Edwuin Cetre was whipped into the box, Carrillo struck again, this time with a right-footed finish, to complete his brace and make it a final 0-3.

What the numbers say

The stats clearly reflect the gap in efficiency between the two sides, even though the ball was fairly evenly shared throughout the match.

The most telling figure is shots on target: just one for the home side against seven for the visitors, a gap that explains why, despite an equal number of total shots, the scoreline ended up so lopsided. According to our estimate of xG generated in the match (calculated after the fact based on shot location), Estudiantes produced 1.50 expected goals to Universidad Catolica's 1.16, a difference that, while not huge, was amplified by the clinical finishing of Carrillo and company in front of goal.

What was expected versus what happened

The pre-match projections pointed to a more even contest, giving Universidad Catolica a 41% chance of winning, 37% for a draw, and just 22% for Estudiantes de La Plata, with expected goals of 1.00 for the home side and 0.67 for the visitors. What happened on the field completely contradicted that forecast: the side given the least chance of winning took control with authority and never let the result come into doubt, a reminder of just how unpredictable a Libertadores tie can be when the visiting team finds its spaces at the right moments.

What the match leaves behind

Universidad Catolica arrives bruised at this late stage of the knockout tie, left with the feeling of having lost both physical and footballing control in the second half. Estudiantes de La Plata, on the other hand, leaves Chile with a commanding lead in the aggregate series and with Guido Carrillo as the undisputed protagonist, author of two of the three goals on the night. The road both teams traveled to reach this tie had already shown balance in the first leg (1-1), but what happened at Claro Arena clearly tipped the scales toward the Argentine side.