Universidad Católica vs Estudiantes de La Plata: a wide-open finish in the Copa Libertadores round of 16

Universidad Católica and Estudiantes de La Plata will settle things this Tuesday at Claro Arena, with a spot in the next round of the Copa Libertadores on the line in the second leg of the round of 16. The first leg in Argentina left the tie wide open, with both sides playing to a 1-1 draw, so everything is still up for grabs heading into this match in Santiago.

How the teams arrive

Universidad Católica has put together a solid campaign in the tournament: four wins, two draws and one loss in seven matches, with 9 goals scored and 5 allowed. Recent form, though, tells a less flattering story. Over its last five matches across all competitions, the club has managed just one win, two draws and two losses. The Chilean side averages 1 goal scored and 0.667 allowed per match in the tournament, has kept a clean sheet in 67% of its games, and tends to find its goals late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Fernando Zampedri is the team's top offensive threat with 4 goals in the competition, followed by Clemente Montes with 2.

Estudiantes de La Plata, meanwhile, has a more modest record in the tournament: two wins, four draws and one loss in seven matches, with 7 goals scored and 6 allowed. Over its last five matches, the Argentine club has picked up two wins, one draw and two losses. Estudiantes hasn't kept a single clean sheet in the tournament (0%), and tends to score early, within the first 15 minutes. Tiago Palacios leads the team with 3 goals, followed by Facundo Farías and Guido Carrillo with one apiece.

Head to head

The only previous meeting between these two clubs is, in fact, the first leg of this very tie, which ended in a 1-1 draw. There is no further history of head-to-head matchups between the two sides.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability and based on recent matches, Universidad Católica is expected to field Vicente Bernedo in goal, a back line made up of Eugenio Mena, Bernardo Cerezo, Branco Ampuero and Daniel González, a midfield featuring Fernando Zuqui, Cristián Cuevas, Jhojan Valencia, Justo Giani and Diego Corral, and Fernando Zampedri leading the attack.

Estudiantes de La Plata's probable lineup would have Fernando Muslera in goal, a defense of Santiago Núñez, Tomás Palacios, Gastón Benedetti and Eric Meza, a midfield of Joaquín Tobio Burgos, Tiago Palacios, Ezequiel Piovi, Alexis Castro and Fabricio Pérez, and Guido Carrillo as the lone striker.

Match odds

These numbers, an in-house estimate based on the season's trends rather than betting odds, make Universidad Católica a moderate favorite at 41%, but a draw at 37% is close behind, and Estudiantes still holds a respectable 22% chance. It's an even forecast, with no clear favorite. The model also projects a total of 1.67 expected goals for the match, and additional trends point to just a 17% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals, against a 44% chance that both teams find the net.

Looking ahead to the match

With the tie level after the 1-1 draw in the first leg, Claro Arena will host a wide-open finish in this round of 16 matchup. Universidad Católica's defensive solidity at home runs up against Estudiantes' need for goals, in a match the numbers suggest will be tight, with no clear winner in sight beforehand.