Unbeaten but unconvincing, Everton host erratic Chelsea at Hill Dickinson

Everton haven't lost a single game in the Premier League so far this season, yet they arrive at this matchup with more draws than wins. That stat sums up their campaign pretty well: solid, hard to beat, but still not quite breaking through. Across the pitch will be Chelsea, a team living at the opposite extreme: they win, they lose, they score goals and they concede them. The clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the Premier League, promises exactly that: an open game between two very different philosophies.

David Moyes' Everton side sit fifth with 10 points, the product of two wins and four draws in six matches, without a single defeat yet. Those are the numbers of a well organized team: 8 goals scored and 5 conceded in the league. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins and three draws, without losing any of them, a run that explains why no one in the Premier League has been able to beat them so far. At home in the Premier League this season, in a sample of just three matches, they're averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.66 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of those games, and they tend to find the net mostly between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Xabi Alonso's Chelsea sit just one spot below in the table, sixth with the same 10 points but a different breakdown: three wins, one draw and two losses, with 15 goals scored and 13 conceded, the shakier defense of the two sides. Over their last five matches the sequence went loss, win, draw, loss and win, which adds up to two wins and two losses in that stretch. On the road in the Premier League this season, across three matches, Chelsea are averaging 1.34 goals scored but 2.34 conceded, without a single clean sheet, and their most productive scoring window is right at the start, between minute 0 and 15.

The head-to-head history between the two clubs leaves little doubt about who has had the upper hand so far: of eight matches, Chelsea won four, Everton won two and there were two draws, with an aggregate scoreline of 12-7 in the Londoners' favor.

Probable lineups

Based on their most recent matches, Moyes is expected to stick with Jordan Pickford in goal and a back line of James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitalii Mykolenko and Ainsley Maitland-Niles. In midfield, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner, Harrison Armstrong, Brennan Johnson and Jack Grealish could all feature, with Thierno Barry leading the line up top: the forward arrives as Everton's top scorer at home in the Premier League this season, with 3 goals in that sample.

For Chelsea, the probable lineup would have Emiliano Martinez in goal, a back line of Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Josh Acheampong and Jorrel Hato, and an attacking trio up front made up of Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro, backed by Pedro Neto and Pep Chavarria in midfield. Joao Pedro stands out as Chelsea's top scorer on the road this season, with 5 goals in that sample. These are projected lineups, not confirmed ones, so they should be taken as a reference rather than the final word on team selection.

What the numbers say

Our model produces a very even forecast, tilted only slightly toward the visitors:

These numbers don't point to a clear favorite: barely two percentage points separate the two sides. The expected goals figures tell the same story, with 1.44 for Everton and 1.46 for Chelsea, an estimated total of 2.91. This is EnPelotas' own projection, not a betting line. On top of that, the broader trends for this match point to a 67% chance of more than 2.5 goals and another 67% chance that both teams score, which fits a picture of a solid Everton side that rarely loses facing a Chelsea team that attacks and gets exposed in equal measure.

With an unbeaten Everton looking to turn draws into wins and an inconsistent Chelsea still getting goals from Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer, Hill Dickinson Stadium has the makings of an evenly matched contest from start to finish.