Unbeaten Everton Travels to Hull City With History and the Numbers on Its Side

The MKM Stadium hosts a matchup that could shake up the table: Hull City sits eighth with 8 points and Everton follows close behind in seventh with 9, just 1 point separating the two sides in the Premier League. There are no big names on the line yet, but there is a chance to break into the upper half of a table that is starting to tighten up after five matchdays.

Hull City comes in with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss so far this season, scoring 6 goals and conceding 4. But recent form has not followed suit: over its last five matches the club has managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with a defeat as the most recent result heading into this clash. Everton, on the other hand, has yet to lose this season: 2 wins and 3 draws in 5 matches played, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. And the Toffees arrive on a roll, having won their last two games following a stretch of three straight draws.

It is also worth looking at how each side has performed in the 2026 Premier League over a sample of 5 combined home and away matches (a separate reference point, not the season record): Hull City averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 60% of those matches, and tends to score more often between the 16th and 30th minutes. Everton, in that same sample, also averages 1.2 goals scored but just 0.6 conceded, with clean sheets in 60% of games and a tendency to find the net late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

The head-to-head record clearly favors the visitors: of the 8 matches played between the two clubs, Everton has won 5, there have been 2 draws and Hull City has won just 1, with a combined scoreline of 19 goals for Everton against 9 for Hull City.

Likely Lineups

With low reliability according to the source, Sergej Jakirovic's Hull City could start Konstantinos Tzolakis in goal, a back line of Lewie Coyle, John Egan, Semi Ajayi, Ryan Giles and Nobel Mendy, a midfield of Regan Slater, Mohamed Belloumi, Matt Crooks and Lucas Herrington, with Oliver McBurnie leading the attack.

David Moyes' Everton, with an estimated medium reliability, could line up with Jordan Pickford between the posts, a back line of Vitalii Mykolenko, James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite and Ainsley Maitland-Niles, a midfield of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Garner, Harrison Armstrong, Brennan Johnson and Tyrique George, with Thierno Barry up top.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives a clear edge to Everton, though it does not rule out Hull City entirely:

Expected goals also tilt in the visitors' favor: 1.45 compared to Hull City's 0.74, for an estimated total of 2.19 goals in the match. These figures come from our own model, not a betting line, and the takeaway is that Everton goes in as the favorite without the draw being out of the question: 30% is nothing to dismiss. On top of that, there is a 64% probability that both teams score, and a 30% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals.

With Everton coming in with better recent form and history working against the home side, Hull City will need to keep up its strong start to the season to avoid falling behind in this midtable battle.