Winless, Last-Place Fulham Hosts Hull City With History and Stats on Their Side

Last place in the Premier League against eighth place. Fulham arrives without a win so far this season, and Hull City steps into Craven Cottage hoping not to snap a run of results that, despite no recent wins, has kept the club clear of the relegation zone. The Premier League serves up a matchup between two very different realities in the standings.

Fulham sits at the bottom with just 2 points: through 6 matches this season, the club has 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 6 goals scored and 10 allowed. The recent run hasn't helped change the story either: over the last 5 matches, Fulham picked up one win, two draws and two losses, with a draw followed by a loss as the two most recent results. At home in the Premier League this season, in a sample of just 3 matches, Fulham is averaging 1.66 goals scored and 2.34 allowed per game, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score within the first 15 minutes. Josh King stands out as the club's top scorer in that sample, with 2 goals.

Hull City, on the other hand, sits in eighth with 9 points, the product of 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 8 goals scored and 6 allowed in the league. Its recent form has cooled off, however: over the last 5 matches, Hull hasn't won once, with three draws and two losses, closing out with a draw in its most recent outing. On the road in the Premier League this season, also across a sample of 3 matches, Hull is averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.34 allowed, with a 33% clean sheet rate, and tends to score between the 16th and 30th minutes. Mohamed Belloumi leads that sample with 3 goals.

The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 7 points, reflecting the contrasting moments each club is going through, though it's worth remembering that only 6 matchdays have been played and the margin can still shift quickly in either direction.

A History That Clearly Favors Fulham

The two sides have met 8 times, with a balance heavily in Fulham's favor: 6 wins, 1 draw and just 1 win for Hull City, with 14 goals for the home side against 7 for the visitors across that head-to-head record.

Possible Lineups

Fulham's likely starting eleven, with moderate reliability based on recent data, would have Bernd Leno in goal, a back four of Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne, Antonee Robinson and David Affengruber, a midfield of Josh King, Alex Iwobi, Oscar Bobb, Sander Berge and Shea Charles, and Gonzalo Garcia leading the line.

For Hull City, also as an estimate, Konstantinos Tzolakis would start in goal, with Lewie Coyle, John Egan, Semi Ajayi, Ryan Giles and Nobel Mendy in defense, Regan Slater, Matt Crooks, Mohamed Belloumi and Sorba Thomas in midfield, and Oliver McBurnie up front.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Fulham a slight edge as the home side, though it doesn't rule out Hull City. Here's how the probabilities break down:

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction. The expected goals figures back up that reading: 1.76 for Fulham against 0.76 for Hull City, for an estimated total of 2.53. Add to that the broader trends: a 67% probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match and a 100% chance both teams find the net.

With Fulham in need of its first win of the season and Hull City looking to halt its recent slide, Craven Cottage shapes up as a stage for goals from both sides, according to everything the numbers suggest.