FA Cup: Stockport County are favorites at Cray Wanderers, but it's no sure thing

An FA Cup tie pitting a National League side against a League One outfit: Cray Wanderers host Stockport County at Flamingo Park with the usual buzz this competition brings, the chance to see if the underdog can cause an upset against the side from above.

Cray Wanderers arrive with their confidence a bit dented. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins and three losses, and the sequence doesn't help: they won two in a row but then dropped two straight to close out that run. Timothy O'Shea needs his team to find its rhythm fast if it wants to compete with a side from a higher division.

On the other side is a Stockport County team arriving in better form: three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five matches, with a winning streak before stumbling in their second to last outing and drawing in their most recent game. Jimmy McNulty leads a team that, based on FA Cup trends recorded this season (over just two matches played as both home and away side), kept a clean sheet in half its matches and showed a tendency to score between the 46th and 60th minutes. In that same sample, Jack Diamond stands out as the most decisive player with two goals, followed by Ben Osborn and Oliver Norwood with one apiece.

The probable lineups

For the visitors, the projected lineup (rated high reliability based on recent data) would have Corey Addai in goal, a backline with Ethan Pye and Josh Dacres-Cogley, and a crowded midfield featuring Oliver Norwood, Tayo Edun, Josh Stokes, Odin Bailey, Ben Osborn and Louie Barry, supporting Kyle Wootton and Adama Sidibeh up top. It's worth noting this is a projection drawn from previous matches, not a lineup confirmed by the coaching staff.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a clear edge to Stockport County, though not an overwhelming one. Here's how it breaks down the probabilities:

The 53% in favor of Stockport County confirms their status as favorites, but the draw (24%) and a home win (23%) sit almost neck and neck, leaving the door open for a surprise. As for expected goals, our own estimate puts it at 1.33 for Cray Wanderers and 2.04 for Stockport County, with a projected total of 3.37 goals for the match. Worth repeating: these are our own figures, not a bookmaker's odds.

With a home side looking to bounce back after a rough end to its recent run and a visiting team arriving with more confidence but no room to relax in the FA Cup, Flamingo Park is set for a match where the favorite is clear, but the outcome is anything but settled.