FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew Battle for Survival in MLS Playoff Race

Nashville SC holds a nine-point cushion atop the Eastern Conference, but things get a lot tighter in the lower half of the table, which is exactly where this FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus Crew matchup at TQL Stadium comes into play. Just four points separate the two sides in the standings, and both desperately need points to stay within range of the MLS playoff spots.

Cincinnati sits ninth with 36 points, the product of 9 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses in 28 matches, with 60 goals scored and 68 allowed, a negative goal difference that's weighing on the club. Recent form hasn't done much to ease concerns either: over the last five matches, Pat Noonan's side has managed just one win, two draws and two losses. Still, at home this MLS season Cincinnati has put up big numbers, averaging 2.778 goals scored per game on their own turf, though they also concede plenty (2.068 per match) and have kept a clean sheet in only 15% of those games. If there's one stat that captures their offensive identity, it's the 76th to 90th minute window, where they tend to do most of their scoring.

Columbus Crew, meanwhile, sits 13th with 32 points, built on 9 wins, 5 draws and 15 losses in 29 appearances, with 44 goals scored and 47 allowed. But watch out for the form: Laurent Courtois's team arrives red hot, with four wins and just one loss in their last five matches, the exact opposite of the stretch their upcoming opponent is going through. As a road team this season, though, the Crew haven't been nearly as solid, averaging 1.574 goals scored and 2.134 allowed away from home, with clean sheets in just 7% of those games, and they tend to do their damage early in the second half, between the 46th and 60th minutes.

The head-to-head history between the two doesn't point to a clear favorite either: in 8 meetings there have been 3 wins apiece and 2 draws, with Cincinnati scoring 9 goals to Columbus's 13.

Probable Lineups

With low reliability based on patterns from their recent matches, Cincinnati projects to line up with Roman Celentano in goal; a back line of Teenage Hadebe, Miles Robinson and Nick Hagglund; Obinna Nwobodo, Gerardo Valenzuela, Samuel Gidi, Ender Echenique and Pavel Bucha in midfield; and up top the duo of Tom Barlow alongside Kevin Denkey, who leads the team in home scoring this season with 17 goals.

Columbus, with high reliability in this projection, shapes up with Patrick Schulte in net; Sean Zawadzki, Malte Amundsen and Steven Moreira across the back; Santiago Rodriguez, Taha Habroune, Anass Zaroury, Mohamed Farsi and Dylan Chambost in midfield; and Brais Mendez paired with Josef Martinez up front.

What the Model Says

Our own projection, based on this season's trends, gives Cincinnati a 43% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 34% for a Columbus victory. There's no clear favorite here: the gap between the home win and away win probabilities is just nine percentage points.

The model also projects goals on both ends: 2.01 expected for Cincinnati and 1.79 for Columbus, for an estimated total of 3.80. That lines up with the broader trends surrounding this match: a 77% probability of more than 2.5 total goals and an 86% probability that both teams find the net. Keep in mind these figures are our own estimate, not betting odds.

With Cincinnati looking to snap out of its slump and Columbus riding a wave of confidence from its recent run, TQL Stadium looks set for an open match, the kind that points toward goals on both ends.