FIFA Window: Spain Favored Against England, Rafa Marquez Makes His Mexico Debut Versus Colombia

The FIFA Window is back, and with it that familiar buzz still lingering from the 2026 World Cup. Some matches are worth watching on their own merits, but once you factor in the betting lines, things get even more interesting. Let's break down who comes in as the favorite in each of the five matchups on the schedule.

England vs Spain: the crown carries weight

Let's start with the marquee matchup. Spain was the least-scored-on team at the last World Cup, conceding just one goal in the entire tournament, and that stat carries real weight as they defend their crown. In fact, the market moved quite a bit: four days before the match at Wembley, Caliente.mx had a shared moneyline of +126 for either side to win, but as kickoff approached, Spain pulled away to become the clear favorite at +128 for the win.

Is that confidence justified? You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time England beat Spain, in that Nations League match where Raheem Sterling scored a brace under Gareth Southgate. Since then, it's been all Spain.

Rafa Marquez's debut: excitement meets the ghost of a 4-0 loss

Meanwhile, there's a debut generating plenty of curiosity: Rafa Marquez will lead the Mexican national team for the first time, in a friendly against Colombia. Sportsbooks list El Tri as a slight favorite at +150, while Colombia is priced at +176.

The catch is that several players called up by Marquez still remember the blow from nearly a year ago, when Mexico fell 4-0 to the Colombians, a result that also extended a streak of four straight wins for Colombia over Mexico. Given that history, it's no surprise the "both teams to score" market looks appealing, priced at -134: everything points to a match with goals on both ends.

Haaland and Cristiano go head-to-head in Oslo

Norway hosts Portugal at Ullevaal Stadion, and the draw here has two names attached: Erling Haaland on one side, Cristiano Ronaldo (still a starter at 42 years old) on the other. Bookmakers aren't fully committing either way: they have either team winning at +158, with the draw priced at +280.

The most recent meeting was a 3-0 Portuguese rout back in 2016, though Cristiano wasn't even part of that squad. For this matchup, the over on 2.5 goals looks like a strong option, priced at -137.

Belgium tries to slow down France and Zidane

France arrives needing to shake off the doubts left by its uneven finish at the World Cup, now under the guidance of Zinedine Zidane. They visit a Belgium side also breaking in a new coach, Van Bommel, but the market doesn't give the hosts much credit: a Belgian win pays +340, even less likely than a draw, priced at +300. A French victory is priced at -139.

It's been more than a decade since Belgium beat France: the last time was in 2015, at the Stade de France, in a wild match that ended 3-4. Two survivors from that goal-fest remain in the current squads: Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans.

Italy building step by step toward 2030

Finally, Italy visits Turkey with the mission of putting three straight missed World Cups behind them and starting to build, under Roberto Mancini, toward 2030. Bookmakers have them as slight favorites at +145, compared to +172 for the hosts.

Italy hasn't lost in Turkey in their last six visits, a stat that backs up the market's slight preference. That said, things look different at home: in their last three matches as hosts, Turkey hasn't managed more than a draw.