Fiorentina looks to shake off its doubts against a red hot Benevento in Coppa Italia

The Artemio Franchi hosts a matchup with a real cup feel to it: Fiorentina opens its doors to Benevento in a Coppa Italia clash that pits a Serie A side dealing with recent doubts against a lower-division opponent riding high and hungry to pull off an upset.

Current form

Fiorentina has struggled to find any real consistency. Over its last five matches the club has managed just one win, three draws and a loss, an uneven stretch that has seen it drop more points than it has earned. The Viola have also failed to keep a clean sheet at the rate the numbers would suggest, and most of their offensive output has come in the first 15 minutes of matches, a sign that they tend to come out of the gate with intensity.

Benevento, on the other hand, is in noticeably better shape: three wins and two draws in its last five outings, with no losses in that span. In the competition itself, having played just one match, Benevento won by a scoreline of 5 goals for and 3 against, numbers that point to a team that attacks with conviction but also gives up goals rather easily. Its most productive stretch comes between the 61st and 75th minutes, suggesting a side that turns up the pressure in the second half.

Head to head

The overall series clearly favors the Tuscans: in the five meetings on record, Fiorentina has won four and Benevento just one, with no draws between them. The goal difference tells the story too: 10 for the home side against 3 for the Campania club, a history that backs up Fiorentina's status as favorite, though it guarantees nothing once the ball is rolling.

Possible lineups

Fiorentina's likely starting eleven, based on its recent matches and flagged as low confidence in the analysis, would have David de Gea in goal, behind a back line of Luca Ranieri, Dodô and Robin Gosens. The midfield could feature Cher Ndour, Rolando Mandragora, Nicolò Fagioli and Marco Brescianini, while up front the options include Albert Gudmundsson, Manor Solomon and Roberto Piccoli, the latter already with a goal this season and a regular threat in the opening minutes of matches. No projected lineup is available for Benevento, though its recent scoring output has come through names like Francesco Salvemini, who has two goals, along with Stefano Scognamillo and Antonio Prisco.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas' own model gives Fiorentina a 51% chance of winning, compared to 25% for Benevento and 24% for a draw. Those numbers point to a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the home side: the gap over the visitors isn't nearly as wide as the head to head record might suggest. As for expected goals, the model projects 2.06 for Fiorentina and 1.43 for Benevento, for a combined total of 3.49, pointing to a match with scoring chances at both ends. This is a projection built on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in prediction.

With an inconsistent Fiorentina still favored by history and by the model, and a Benevento riding a hot streak with attacking intent, the Franchi promises an open Coppa Italia contest, one where the home side's fast starts could run into the visitors' second half punch.