Fiorentina heavily favored against winless Pisa in Coppa Italia

The Artemio Franchi opens its doors for a Coppa Italia clash between Fiorentina and Pisa, and the early numbers already offer a hint of how the night could go: the hosts arrive off a commanding win in their opener, while the visitors were left wanting more after a tight draw.

Fiorentina opened their run in the tournament with a clear victory: in their only match so far they've posted 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded. Recent form, however, paints a more uneven picture: over their last five matches across all competitions they've gone two wins and three losses, with that stretch ending in a win after a rough patch. Pisa, for their part, are still searching for their first Coppa Italia win: their tournament debut ended in a 1-1 draw, leaving their record at one match played, one draw and no wins or losses. In their last five outings across all competitions they've gone two wins, one draw and two losses, a balanced record that makes them neither a clear favorite nor an easy target.

It's also worth looking at trends from this same Coppa Italia in the 2026 season, though the sample is limited to just one match for each team: Fiorentina failed to keep a clean sheet and scored mostly between the 46th and 60th minutes, with Luca Ranieri and Cher Ndour as their scorers in that game. Pisa, in the same competition and with the same small sample, also conceded and found their best scoring stretch between the 31st and 45th minutes, with Tommaso Marras their top attacking threat with two goals.

The head-to-head history between the two sides is short but favors the Tuscans of the Franchi: of the 2 matches played, Fiorentina won one and they split the other in a draw, with no wins for Pisa, and a combined tally of 1 goal for the hosts to none for Pisa across those meetings.

Probable lineups

With the caveat that this is a low-confidence projected lineup, drawn from recent matches and not confirmed, Fiorentina could start with David de Gea in goal, a back line featuring Radu Dragusin, Luca Ranieri, Viery and Alex Jimenez, and a midfield including names like Arthur Atta, Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli and Franco Mastantuono, the latter a regular starter in four of the last six matches. Pisa, meanwhile, could field Alessandro Confente in goal, a defensive line with Simone Canestrelli and Arturo Calabresi, and an attacking trio up top featuring Mehdi Leris, Matteo Tramoni and Andrea Petagna, all starters in most of their recent matches.

What the model's numbers say

The 71% figure in Fiorentina's favor marks a clear edge, backed up by expected goals of 2.30 for the hosts against 0.77 for Pisa, according to our model's own estimate. This isn't a betting line or a locked-in prediction, but a read based on the season's trends, and the message is consistent: Pisa would have to swim against the current if they want to pull off a surprise at the Franchi.

With the Coppa Italia on the line and both teams chasing their first tournament win in a row, the match promises scoreboard action if the expected goals numbers hold up. The question is whether Pisa can slow down the scoring pace Fiorentina showed in their opener, or whether the Franchi will once again celebrate a flurry of goals.