Pisa and Empoli meet in Coppa Italia in an even Tuscan derby

The Arena Garibaldi Romeo Anconetani hosts a Tuscan derby with its own distinct flavor when Pisa and Empoli face off in the Coppa Italia. It is a clash between neighbors arriving with different needs but a shared urgency: to shake off inconsistent runs and find some good vibes in a competition that always carries the possibility of an upset.

How the teams arrive

Pisa is going through a rough patch mentally: the club has racked up five losses in its last five matches, a streak that weighs on the squad heading into this game. Even so, there's a notable defensive stat working in its favor, with clean sheets in half of its matches, and the team tends to be especially sharp in the opening 15 minutes, the window in which it scores most often.

Empoli, meanwhile, arrives in somewhat steadier recent form: over its last five matches it picked up one win, two draws and two losses. The club hasn't kept a clean sheet in any of those games, pointing to a leaky defense, though up front it spreads the scoring load among several names: Luca Belardinelli, Danilo Busiello and Edoardo Saporiti stand as its top scorers, each with one goal. Like its rival, Empoli also tends to score more in the opening stretch of the match, between minute 0 and 15.

Head to head

The recent history between these two clubs is tightly matched. Across 6 meetings, Pisa has won 2, Empoli 3 and one ended in a draw. On the scoring front, Pisa has netted 10 goals and Empoli 9, a razor-thin difference that confirms just how close these Tuscan derbies tend to be.

Likely lineups

For Pisa, with a high level of confidence in the projected starting eleven, Adrian Semper is expected in goal, with Simone Canestrelli, Antonio Caracciolo and Rosen Bozhinov forming the back line. In midfield, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Samuele Angori, Mehdi Leris, Michel Aebischer and Isak Vural would line up, while Stefano Moreo and Filip Stojilkovic look set to pair up front.

Empoli, with medium confidence in its projected lineup, would field Andrea Fulignati in goal, shielded by Gabriele Guarino, Matteo Lovato, Antonio Candela and Simone Romagnoli. Luca Magnino, Gerard Yepes, Andrea Ghion and Tyronne Ebuehi would occupy midfield, with Stiven Shpendi and Marco Nasti leading the attack.

The odds

Based on our own model, the match looks even from start to finish. The expected goals figures back that up: 1.27 for Pisa and 1.26 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.54 that points to a game with scoring chances for both sides.

The numbers amount to virtually a technical tie between the three outcomes, with an even 35% split for each team and 30% for the draw. It's worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a fixed prediction.

Looking ahead to kickoff

With a Pisa side needing to reconnect with good form and an Empoli looking to build on its slight improvement, the balance reflected in the numbers points to a tight game, one where the opening minutes, the stretch in which both sides tend to be most dangerous, could prove decisive.