Fiorentina looks to bounce back against Frosinone at the Artemio Franchi after lopsided 0-4 opener

A 0-4 loss on opening day leaves a mark, and Fiorentina arrives at this match with the worst goal difference in all of Serie A: four goals conceded and none scored. At the Artemio Franchi they host a Frosinone side that also failed to pick up points in its own debut, though its setback was far tighter, a 0-1 loss. There's not much on the line in the standings just yet, but plenty to prove for two teams that need to kick off the season with something resembling a win.

Fiorentina's opening loss stings because of the scoreline, but it's worth keeping some perspective: it's only one match played in the league, so sitting 20th doesn't say much yet. That said, looking at recent form (the last five matches, a different sample than this league's record), the team arrives with two wins, two draws and one loss, suggesting a squad more competitive than its league start would indicate. Frosinone, meanwhile, had been on a strong run before this competition: four wins in its last five matches and just one loss, the most recent one. That contrast between good recent form and a rough Serie A start makes them an awkward opponent even though both sides sit on the same point total.

The head-to-head record also tilts in the home side's favor: across six meetings, Fiorentina has won 2, there have been 3 draws and Frosinone has won just 1. In terms of goals, the Tuscans have scored 11 to the visitors' 5, a wide gap that reinforces the sense of a matchup that has historically favored the hosts.

Probable lineups

With low reliability based on the recent sample, Fiorentina would likely field David de Gea in goal and a back line with Luca Ranieri, Dodô and Radu Dragusin. In midfield, expect names like Cher Ndour, Marco Brescianini, Nicolò Fagioli, Arthur Atta, Albert Gudmundsson and Rolando Mandragora, with Roberto Piccoli as the focal point up front.

Frosinone, with a higher estimated reliability, would largely repeat its lineup: Lorenzo Palmisani in goal, and a back line of Ilario Monterisi, Gabriele Bracaglia, Anthony Oyono and Giorgio Cittadini. In midfield, Giacomo Calò, Matteo Cichella, Giorgi Kvernadze and Francesco Gelli look set to feature, while Antonio Raimondo and Farès Ghedjemis would lead the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, sees Fiorentina as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin: there's real room for an away upset and for a draw as well.

That 57% figure for Fiorentina is clear, but not overwhelming: Frosinone still holds a 19% chance and the draw sits around 24%, nothing to dismiss. The expected goals numbers (our own estimate, not an official figure) point to a match with movement on the scoreboard, with a projected total of 3 goals between both sides. It's worth remembering that neither team managed a clean sheet in its opener, so a bet on an open, back-and-forth match makes sense.

With both sides needing points, the Artemio Franchi should serve up a match with little room for caution. Fiorentina will look to erase the bad memory of its opener; Frosinone will look to confirm that its good recent form was no fluke.