Fluminense knocks out Independiente Rivadavia on penalties after dramatic draw in Mendoza

Fluminense punched its ticket to the Copa Libertadores quarterfinals on a dramatic night at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza, where the 90 minutes ended 1-1 but everything was settled from the penalty spot: the Brazilian club won 5-4 in the shootout, sending Independiente Rivadavia out of the round of 16 despite a fight to the very last gasp.

The tie arrived with Independiente Rivadavia and Fluminense having drawn 0-0 in the first leg, so everything was still to be decided in Mendoza. The first half was even and scoreless, with more chances for the home side: Maximiliano Salas clipped the crossbar in the 6th minute and Alex Arce kept probing down the right without finding the target. Fluminense answered through Hulk and a header from Thiago Silva that drifted wide. The second half shifted in tone in the 57th minute, when Agustin Canobbio was shown a second yellow card for dangerous play, leaving the visitors down to ten men. Even so, the numerical disadvantage did not stop Fluminense from striking first: in the 75th minute, Kevin Serna finished with his right foot from inside the box after a defense splitting pass from Hercules made it 0-1.

The stoppage time twist

Independiente Rivadavia threw everything forward in search of an equalizer and found its reward in second half stoppage time. In the 90th minute, a handball by Ignacio inside the area triggered a VAR review, which confirmed the penalty in the 91st minute. Five minutes later, Alex Arce made no mistake from twelve yards to make it a final 1-1, forcing a penalty shootout, the outcome that would ultimately tip the tie in Brazil's favor.

The shootout had a bit of everything: Thiago Silva, Matias Fernandez, Ivan Villalba, Rene, Hercules, Maximiliano Salas, Martinelli and Alex Arce all converted their attempts, while Lucho Acosta, Jose Florentin and Rodrigo Atencio missed theirs. The final miss, from Atencio, sealed the 5-4 result in Fluminense's favor.

What the numbers say

Possession belonged to the visitors, though the home side generated more shot volume:

The advanced numbers also back up the Argentine side's offensive edge: by our own in game xG estimate, Independiente Rivadavia racked up 1.988 expected goals compared to 0.623 for Fluminense, a gap that reflects the clear chances the home side created, especially late on, and one that stands in contrast to the unfavorable result in the shootout.

A tie that defied the forecast

The pre match projections had pointed to a clear edge for the home side, giving Independiente Rivadavia a 61% chance of winning against just 11% for Fluminense and a 28% chance of a draw, with expected goals of 1.5 for the home team and 0.5 for the visitors. The reality proved far tighter: a level scoreline, a man down for the Brazilians for more than half an hour, and finally a shootout that swung toward the side those numbers had marked as the underdog.

The result sends Fluminense through to the next round of the Copa Libertadores despite playing much of the second half with ten men and being outplayed for long stretches of the match. For Independiente Rivadavia, the elimination stings twice over: it fought back with composure in stoppage time and deserved more given what it produced on the field, but penalty kick fortune ended up writing an ending the run of play never suggested.