Fluminense hosts Palmeiras at the Maracana: unbeaten leader looks to confirm dominance against struggling Rio side

The Estadio do Maracana will host a heavyweight clash in the Brasileirao when Fluminense hosts Palmeiras, the league's unbeaten leader for nearly the entire campaign. The match pits fourth place against first, separated by 13 points, and tests the Sao Paulo club's solidity away from home against a rival in need of a win.

Current form

Fluminense sits fourth with 35 points from 22 matches played (9 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses), with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. Its recent form, though, raises questions: the team hasn't won any of its last five matches, picking up four draws and a loss in that span. The Rio side averages 1.64 goals scored per game and has kept a clean sheet in just 27 percent of its matches, though it tends to find the net late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. John Kennedy leads the scoring chart with 9 goals, followed by Agustin Canobbio with 4.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, is the undisputed leader with 48 points from 22 matches (14 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses), with 38 goals scored and just 16 conceded, the best defensive record in the league. Over its last five matches it has posted two wins, two draws and a loss, a more uneven stretch than its table position would suggest. The Sao Paulo club scores 1.9 goals per match, concedes just 0.72 and has kept a clean sheet in 46 percent of its games, with Jose Manuel Lopez as its top scorer with 6 goals.

Head to head

The recent history between the two sides is remarkably even: in 8 matches played, Fluminense has won 3, Palmeiras has won 3 and there have been 2 draws, with 7 goals scored by each side. That record points to a tight contest, regardless of the current gap in the standings.

Probable lineups

Fluminense could field, in an estimate carrying low reliability based on recent matches, Fabio in goal; a back line with Ignacio, Guilherme Arana and Guga; a midfield of Martinelli, Hercules, Agustin Canobbio, Lucho Acosta and Nonato; and up front, Hulk alongside Yeferson Soteldo.

Palmeiras' probable lineup, projected with greater reliability, would have Carlos Miguel between the posts; a defense of Murilo, Joaquin Piquerez, Alexander Barboza and Emiliano Martinez; a midfield of Marlon Freitas, Andreas Pereira, Jhon Arias and Allan; and in attack, Mauricio alongside Ramon Sosa.

Odds

According to this in-house estimate, based on season trends rather than bookmaker odds, Palmeiras comes in as the favorite at 42 percent, but the gap with both the draw and the home win, each at 29 percent, is razor thin. Far from a lopsided forecast, the numbers point to a more balanced match than the standings suggest. Expected goals back that up too: 1.18 for Fluminense against 1.45 for Palmeiras, figures that point to a tight contest, with season trends putting the chances of over 2.5 goals at 64 percent and both teams scoring at 83 percent.

Looking ahead

With Fluminense needing to get back to winning ways in front of its own fans and Palmeiras looking to confirm its hold on first place despite a less convincing recent stretch, the Maracana will host a matchup that promises goals and balance, whatever the table might say.