Palmeiras strikes at the Maracana and takes the edge over Fluminense in Copa Libertadores semifinal first leg

The Maracana fell silent when Marlon Freitas tapped in Palmeiras' second goal in the 84th minute. Fluminense pushed hard in stoppage time and Wesley Nata gave the scoreline some dignity with a header in the 92nd minute, but it wasn't enough: a final 1-2, with Abel Ferreira's side taking a significant edge from the first leg of the Copa Libertadores semifinals.

The match took time to open up. Fluminense controlled the ball comfortably through the whole first half, but Palmeiras waited for its moment and found it right before the break: Jose Manuel Lopez finished with his right foot from the center of the box after a cross from Joaquin Piquerez, in the 44th minute, making it 0-1 at halftime.

In the second half, Fluminense tried to respond through Hercules and with Marcao's substitutions, bringing on Kevin Serna, Lucho Acosta and Rodrigo Castillo in search of a reaction that never quite materialized clearly in front of goal. Palmeiras, more comfortable without the ball, sat back and struck again: in the 84th minute, Felipe Anderson set up Marlon Freitas with a headed assist, and Freitas finished low by the left post for 0-2. With the result already decided, Fluminense pulled one back in stoppage time: Guga crossed into the box and Wesley Nata, who had just come on, headed into the middle of the goal to make it 1-2, closing out the scoring in the 92nd minute.

Plenty of the ball, not enough sharpness

The numbers tell an interesting story: Fluminense dominated possession and total shots, but Palmeiras was more effective where it counts.

Fluminense completed more than 800 passes to Palmeiras' 353, but that gap of nearly 71 to 30 percent in possession didn't translate into cutting edge: only 3 of its 11 shots were on target. Palmeiras, by contrast, turned 5 of its 7 shots into tests for Carlos Miguel and made the most of both its big chances. That efficiency also shows up in our expected goals estimate calculated after the match: Palmeiras generated 1.383 xG to Fluminense's 0.523, a gap that backs up what the scoreline showed despite the home side's territorial control.

What the preview said

Before the match, our projection gave Palmeiras a 40% chance of winning, against 28% for Fluminense and 32% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.23 for the visitors and 1.00 for the home side. The result ended up lining up fairly well with that read: the favorite on paper won out, though the final 1-2 and Wesley Nata's late consolation goal gave the match more drama than those numbers suggested.

The road here

Fluminense reached this semifinal after eliminating Independiente Rivadavia in the round of 16 and Platense in the quarterfinals, with a 2-0 home win that was enough despite falling 1-2 in the second leg. Palmeiras, for its part, knocked out Cerro Porteno and then LDU Quito, beating them 1-0 in the first leg and holding on despite losing 2-3 in the return. Two different paths that converged at a Maracana where the home side had the ball, but Palmeiras had the goals. It remains to be seen how this semifinal plays out over the rest of the tie.