Fluminense stuns Palmeiras at the Maracana with Cano's stoppage-time winner

Fluminense pulled off a thrilling comeback at the Maracana Stadium, beating Palmeiras 3-2 in a Brasileirao clash that stayed level or against the hosts until the final gasp. The league leaders went ahead twice, but the home side answered late to snatch all three points with a dramatic goal in stoppage time.

A back-and-forth battle

Palmeiras started the stronger side and struck early: in the 9th minute, Gustavo Gomez headed home a Joaquin Piquerez corner delivery to make it 0-1. Fluminense responded before long. Just before halftime, in the 41st minute, Hulk equalized with a header off an Agustin Canobbio cross, and the sides went into the break level at 1-1.

The second half stayed tense with few clear chances until, in the 81st minute, Mauricio put Palmeiras back in front with a low finish from the center of the box, set up by Jose Manuel Lopez. It looked like the visitors from Sao Paulo would hold on for the win, but Fluminense struck back almost immediately: just three minutes later, in the 84th, substitute Kevin Serna, who had just come on, finished from close range to make it 2-2. Buoyed by the equalizer, the hosts pushed for a winner and found it deep into stoppage time: in the 91st minute, German Cano headed home from a corner, assisted by Martinelli, to seal the final 3-2.

The numbers behind the match

Fluminense controlled possession and was the more incisive team in both boxes, according to the match statistics.

Based on an in-house estimate calculated from the match's shot data, Fluminense posted an xG of 2.60 compared to Palmeiras' 2.09, a gap that backs up the sense that the home side deserved the result given their attacking persistence, even though the scoreline was not settled until stoppage time.

What the preview said versus what happened

Before kickoff, published projections gave Palmeiras a 42% chance of winning, against a 29% chance for a Fluminense win and another 29% for a draw. Pre-match expected goals pointed to a tight contest, with 1.18 for the hosts and 1.45 for the visitors. Reality ended up defying that forecast: despite falling behind twice, Fluminense found the answers it needed to beat the league leaders.

What the result means

With the win, Fluminense strengthens its hold on fourth place in the standings, while Palmeiras, who came in as leaders with 48 points from 23 matches played (14 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses), suffers a stumble that does not cost them top spot but does snap a positive run. The points gap between the two sides in the table stands at 10, confirming that this win, beyond its emotional value for the Rio de Janeiro club, does not change the overall standings, though it does leave behind an image of character for a Fluminense side that came from behind twice in barely ten minutes to claim a match that had looked lost.