Freiburg hosts unbeaten league leaders Bayern, history not on their side

Just one point separates Freiburg from Bayern München in the standings, but the head-to-head record tells a very different story. The Europa-Park Stadion hosts this Bundesliga clash between third place and the league leaders, a matchup that promises goals at both ends if the numbers each side has posted this season are any indication.

Freiburg sits third with 13 points, the product of four wins, one draw and one loss in six matches, with 15 goals scored and 6 allowed. Over their last five matches, though, Julian Schuster's side has been up and down: a draw, two wins and then two straight losses to close out that stretch. Bayern, meanwhile, lead the table with 14 points, unbeaten in the competition (4 wins and 2 draws in 6 matches) and with a staggering goal difference, 22 scored against just 5 conceded. They haven't lost any of their last five fixtures, though they haven't managed to win them all either: two wins and three draws mark their recent run.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs based on home or away form. At home in the Bundesliga this season, across a sample of three matches, Freiburg averages 3.66 goals scored per game and just 0.66 conceded, with clean sheets in 33 percent of those games and their most productive stretch coming between minutes 76 and 90. Yuito Suzuki, with 4 goals, leads their attack in that sample, followed by Igor Matanovic and Maximilian Eggestein with 3 apiece. Bayern, on the road and also over a three-match sample, average 1.34 goals scored and 1 conceded, with that same 33 percent clean sheet rate, but doing most of their scoring between minutes 16 and 30. There, Michael Olise stands out with 5 goals, with Harry Kane and Luis Díaz adding 4 each.

A history that weighs heavily

The head-to-head record clearly favors Bayern: of the 8 matches played, Freiburg has never won, with 2 draws and 6 victories for the Bavarians, and an aggregate goal tally of 21 to 10 in Bayern's favor.

Possible lineups

For this match, Freiburg could field a starting eleven led by Mio Backhaus in goal, a back line with Matthias Ginter, Jordy Makengo, Philipp Treu and Philipp Lienhart, a midfield featuring Maximilian Eggestein, Niklas Beste, Yuito Suzuki, Yannik Engelhardt and Derry Scherhant, and Igor Matanovic leading the attack. This is an estimated lineup, with medium reliability based on recent matches played.

On Bayern's side, the likely lineup, with low reliability, would have Manuel Neuer in goal, a defense with Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-Jae, Josip Stanisic and Konrad Laimer, a midfield of Aleksandar Pavlovic, Michael Olise, Ismael Saibari, Joshua Kimmich and Luis Díaz, and Harry Kane as the lone striker.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Bayern a clear edge, though it doesn't rule Freiburg out entirely:

The 68% figure in Bayern's favor reflects their unbeaten record and massive goal difference, but it isn't a done deal: these figures are our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. Expected goals also point to an open contest: 1.3 for Freiburg against 2.79 for Bayern, a combined total of 4.09 that lines up with the broader trends around this matchup, where there's an estimated 83 percent chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67 percent chance both teams find the net.

With those numbers on the table, the Europa-Park Stadion could see a match with plenty of chances at both ends. Freiburg needs to confirm its strong home form to hold onto third place, while Bayern looks to protect its unbeaten run and keep its grip on top of the table.