Leverkusen hosts unbeaten leader Freiburg in Bundesliga showdown atop the table

The league leader visits the fourth-place club, and neither side is limping into this one: Leverkusen has put together four wins and a draw in its last five matches, while Freiburg has done exactly the same and, on top of that, remains unbeaten so far in the Bundesliga. The clash at the BayArena pits two of the division's form teams against each other, with just 3 points separating them in the standings.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen, coached by Carles Martínez, sits fourth with 10 points after a run of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 14 goals and conceding 8 so far this season. Julian Schuster's Freiburg, meanwhile, tops the table with 13 points from 4 wins and 1 draw, still unbeaten, and with a striking goal difference: 14 scored against just 4 allowed. Both arrive in form, neither has lost in its last five outings.

Looking at this season's attacking output in Bundesliga play, both home and away, the numbers are almost a mirror image: Leverkusen averages 2.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in that sample, keeping a clean sheet in 40% of its matches, with its most productive stretch coming in the opening 15 minutes. Freiburg also averages 2.8 goals scored but only 0.8 conceded, with an identical 40% clean sheet rate and its heaviest output between the 16th and 30th minutes. In that same sample, Patrik Schick stands out as Leverkusen's top scorer with 5 goals, while Yuito Suzuki leads Freiburg's tally with 4.

A history that favors Leverkusen

The head-to-head record strongly favors the home side: of the 8 matches played, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has won 5, there have been 3 draws, and Freiburg has yet to take a win. The goal tally also leans toward the hosts, 25 to 13. Those numbers come from past meetings, of course, but they carry weight given this matchup between two teams sitting almost level in the table.

The probable lineups

With medium reliability, Leverkusen's projected lineup would have Mark Flekken in goal; a back line of Edmond Tapsoba, Miguel Gutiérrez, Facundo Medina and Jarell Quansah; a midfield of Aleix García, Ibrahim Maza, Equi Fernández, Moussa Diaby and Afonso Moreira; and Patrik Schick leading the attack.

For Freiburg, with high reliability, Mio Backhaus would start between the posts; a defense of Matthias Ginter, Jordy Makengo, Philipp Lienhart and Philipp Treu; a midfield of Yuito Suzuki, Maximilian Eggestein, Derry Scherhant, Niklas Beste and Yannik Engelhardt; and Igor Matanovic up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives the home side a slight edge, though far from overwhelming favoritism:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, and it's worth reading with some nuance: the 57% favors Leverkusen based on home advantage and the recent head-to-head record, but the remaining 43%, split between a draw and a visitor's win, makes clear that Freiburg, as the unbeaten leader, isn't just making up the numbers. Expected goals tell a similar story: 2.12 for the home side and 1.21 for the visitors, a combined 3.34 that lines up with an 80% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 100% chance both teams find the net, according to our trends.

With all that in play, the BayArena has every ingredient for an open match: two teams that attack frequently, both unbeaten or nearly so, playing for more than just three points in the race for the top of the Bundesliga.