Germany overwhelms Serbia with 32 shots but settles for 2-0

Germany didn't need even an hour to settle matters at the Allianz Arena: with goals from Tom Bischof in the 38th minute and Florian Wirtz in the 60th, the hosts beat a Serbia side that barely showed up all night, 2-0, in matchday action in the UEFA Nations League.

The number that best sums up what unfolded is this: Germany finished with 32 shots to Serbia's one. This wasn't a tight game decided by a single flash of brilliance, it was a continuous siege that took time to turn into goals only because the Serbian goalkeeper and the crossbar came up with several timely interventions before the opener.

A first half of total control

From the opening whistle, Germany set up camp in Serbia's half. Nick Woltemade, Serge Gnabry and Waldemar Anton all tested the Serbian defense before the quarter-hour mark, and between the 29th and 35th minutes the goalkeeper denied at least three shots in a row from Gnabry and Wirtz. The pressure finally paid off in the 38th minute: after a Wirtz shot clipped the left post, Tom Bischof popped up at point-blank range down the left side and finished with his left foot into the top corner to make it 1-0. Germany went into the break with a slim lead on the scoreboard, but with a level of control that left no doubt about who was running the game.

The second goal and the closing stretch

In the second half, Germany stuck to the same script. Said El Mala, who had come on for Gnabry at halftime, caused problems down the left, and Malick Thiaw came close to doubling the lead with a header that was saved. The second goal arrived in the 60th minute: Florian Wirtz received the ball inside the box off an assist from Maximilian Mittelstadt and finished with his right foot into the right side of the net to make it 2-0. From there, Germany managed the lead through substitutions (El Mala, Burkardt, Conte, Baur and Janelt all came on) without easing off in terms of chance creation, while Serbia, despite its own changes, couldn't trouble the German goal beyond a shot from Filip Kostic that was comfortably handled by the keeper.

The numbers behind the domination

Our in-game expected goals estimate, calculated from shot locations, has Germany at 4.22 xG against just 0.02 xG for Serbia, a gap that explains why the final 2-0 scoreline actually undersells what happened on the field.

The preview we published ahead of the match projected an 86% win probability for Germany, 10% for a draw and just 4% for Serbia, with expected goals split at 3.61 for the hosts and 0.87 for the visitors. The result matched that forecast in terms of the winner, though Germany finished below its projected goal tally despite the huge number of chances created.

What it means in the standings

In Group A2, Germany moved to 4 points after this match, while Serbia remained on 0, with a goal difference of -4. The 4-point gap between the two sides already reflected where each national team stood before kickoff, and what played out at the Allianz Arena only confirmed it on the field.