VAR Wipes Out Gladbach Goal, Paderborn Hold On for a Draw

The scoreline finished 0-0 at Borussia-Park, but the match hit its most tense moment in the 34th minute, when Joe Scally thought he had put Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead. VAR reviewed the play and the goal was chalked off, a call that left the score unchanged and ended up being, by far, the most talked about moment of the afternoon.

Beyond that disallowed goal, the Bundesliga clash between Mönchengladbach and Paderborn 07 was not short on chances. Robin Hack gave an early warning in the 7th minute with a shot that was stopped right under the crossbar, and he tried his luck several more times without success. Paderborn answered with steady pressure down the flanks, as Tom Baack and Raphael Obermair fed a string of crosses that Stefano Marino and Jano ter Horst could not convert, repeatedly skimming the post or sending the ball over the bar.

The first half ended goalless despite the back and forth, with the home side left with more to complain about from the VAR review than from the scoreboard. The tempo dropped a bit after the break, but chances kept coming: Wael Mohya tested the goalkeeper twice from inside the box, Steffen Tigges (who came on after an injury to Marvin Pieringer) went for it with a header, and deep into stoppage time Rayan Philippe and Tjark Scheller had the last chances for Paderborn, both of which the home goalkeeper handled.

What the numbers say

Paderborn controlled more of the ball and generated slightly more overall volume, though without turning it into clear-cut chances.

According to our own post-match xG estimate, Mönchengladbach generated 1.357 expected goals against 0.836 for Paderborn, a gap that lines up with the disallowed VAR goal and with Hack's first-half chances. It is a measure of the chances created, not a result that should necessarily have happened.

Our pre-match preview gave Mönchengladbach a 48% chance of winning, against a 26% chance of a draw and another 26% chance of an away win, with combined expected goals of 3.04 (1.77 for the home side and 1.27 for the visitors). The scoreless draw ended up being the least likely of the three outcomes under that projection, and it also came with considerably less attacking output than anticipated.

What the result means for the table

The split points do not change much for either side. Paderborn 07 stay on 9 points so far this season, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, while Mönchengladbach have just 4 points after 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses in their 8 matches played. The gap between the two in the standings is 5 points, and this draw does not close that distance.

In the end, what played out at Borussia-Park was an even match, with chances spread across both ends, decided more by what did not count than by what did. Mönchengladbach are left wondering whether Scally's goal could have changed the story; Paderborn walk away with a point that holds their spot in the middle of the table.