Gruda's thunderous left-footed strike sinks PSV and hands Leipzig a Champions League win

A left-footed strike from outside the box by Brajan Gruda, curling into the top left corner off a corner kick, gave RB Leipzig a 1-0 win over PSV at the Red Bull Arena in the Champions League league phase. The goal came in the 74th minute, in a match that PSV started dominating from the penalty spot, but one that ultimately left the Dutch side with nothing to show for it.

The earliest play to shape the match was a penalty awarded to PSV, given after a VAR review in the 15th minute for a handball by Ridle Baku inside the area. With everything in their favor to take the lead, Ivan Perisic struck it with his right foot, but it was PSV who came up short: the shot was saved right under the crossbar. That squandered chance would weigh on the final score.

The first half ended scoreless, with Leipzig pushing on the outside, Antonio Nusa, Willi Orban and Ezechiel Banzuzi all tried headers and shots without luck, while PSV created chances through Ruben van Bommel and Sven Mijnans, whose shots forced Leipzig to scramble under their own crossbar.

The goal that decided the match

In the second half, Leipzig kept pushing forward: Antonio Nusa, Ridle Baku and Willi Orban all had clear chances that PSV's goalkeeper turned away. The persistence paid off on a set piece: a corner kick into the box, and Brajan Gruda finished with his left foot from outside the area to make it 1-0 in the 74th minute. Just a minute later, Gruda was substituted off for Rocco Reitz, and PSV turned to its bench, bringing on Ryan Flamingo, Yarek Gasiorowski, Ayoni Santos and Mikkel Hansen in search of an answer that never came. In the 80th minute, VAR intervened again, this time to revise the sanction against Antonio Nusa, who ended up with a yellow card for dangerous play.

What the numbers say

Possession belonged to PSV, but Leipzig was more effective at creating danger in the opposing box:

According to our post-match estimate based on the shots taken, Leipzig generated 2.347 expected goals compared to PSV's 1.567, a gap that backs up the home side's higher shot volume despite seeing less of the ball.

The pre-match outlook had projected a tight, high-scoring affair: 43% odds for Leipzig, 22% for a draw and 35% for PSV, with a combined goal estimate of 4.08 between both sides. The actual result turned out to be far tighter than expected: a single goal in the entire match, though the home win did land on the side the model favored as more likely.

Where it leaves the standings

In the overall league phase table, Leipzig came into the match with a record of one win and one loss in two matches played, while PSV had one draw and one loss, also in two appearances. The points gap between the two sides before this match was 2. With this win, Leipzig adds to its case for climbing the table in a competition where, at this stage, almost everything remains open.

PSV, for its part, is left to rue the missed chance from the penalty spot, still searching for its first win so far in this edition of the Champions League.