PSV and Shakhtar Meet in Champions League with Both Sides in Good Form

PSV arrives at this Champions League matchup having won four of its last five games, with the only blemish being a draw somewhere in that stretch. Shakhtar Donetsk is right there with them, also picking up four wins in its last five, with a single loss mixed in. Two teams riding good form will face off at the Philips Stadion, in a tournament where both sides are still looking to open their points tally.

Neither club has played a match in this edition of the competition yet, so the overall standings say nothing about them for now: they sit with no points, no games played and no goal difference, which is normal at this early stage. Recent form, on the other hand, does paint a picture: PSV comes in unbeaten across its last five outings, and Shakhtar carries that same record aside from the one stumble.

It's worth looking at the season trends too, though it's important to keep in mind these come from a separate sample and a different context. Playing at home in the 2025 Champions League, PSV is averaging 2.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game across four matches, without a single clean sheet, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 76th and 90th minutes. Ricardo Pepi stands out as the top performer in that sample with three goals, followed by Dennis Man and Guus Til with two apiece. Shakhtar, for its part, carries an away record from the 2024 Champions League: 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game across four matches, with a 25% clean sheet rate and its best scoring window in the opening 15 minutes. These are snapshots from a different season and a different context, so they should be read as background rather than a direct forecast for this game.

The head to head history between the two is short: just one recorded meeting, which PSV won 3-2 at home.

Probable Lineups

With medium reliability, PSV would likely field Matej Kovar in goal behind a back line of Armando Obispo, Mauro Junior, Sergino Dest and Ryan Flamingo. In midfield, Guus Til looks like a lock (a starter in all six recent matches analyzed), joined by Ivan Perisic, Ruben van Bommel, Noah Fernandez and Kodai Sano, with Ricardo Pepi leading the line up top.

Shakhtar, with lower reliability in its projection, would likely line up with Dmytro Riznyk in goal, a defense of Valerii Bondar, Pedro Henrique, Mykola Matviienko, Vinicius Tobias and Alaa Ghram, and a midfield featuring Oleh Ocheretko, Yehor Nazaryna, Newerton, Alisson Santana and Marlon Gomes, the latter the team's top scorer in the away sample with one goal.

What the Numbers Say

Our model, which is our own estimate and not a betting line, points to a game with a slight edge for PSV but no clear favorite.

With PSV at 47%, a draw at 24% and Shakhtar at 29%, the model acknowledges this is a genuine contest: the home side starts out somewhat better positioned, but the gap isn't huge. Combined expected goals sit around 3.61, in line with the 75% our trends assign to the match going over 2.5 total goals, and the 50% probability that both teams score suggests an open game at both ends.

With both teams arriving in good shape and a model that doesn't lean heavily either way, the Philips Stadion could be the stage for a match with goals at both ends.