Guadalajara favored as San Luis looks to turn things around at home

Estadio Libertad Financiera hosts a matchup with two very different storylines: Atlético San Luis is trying to snap an uncomfortable run of form, while Guadalajara arrives with plenty of confidence after stringing together good results. It's a Liga MX clash, and while the current standings don't show an enormous gap, there is a 5-point difference between the two sides in the table.

Atlético San Luis sits 13th with a record of 6 games played, 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, having scored 8 goals and conceded 10. Over the last five matches the team has managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses: a loss and a draw to open that stretch, then another loss, another draw and finally a win to close it out. It's not a run worth celebrating, but at least there's been a recent uptick. Guadalajara, meanwhile, sits in fifth place with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in its 6 games, 9 goals scored and 6 allowed. Its form over the last five matches is sturdier: a loss, a win, a win, a win and a draw, which adds up to three victories and a draw in its last four outings.

It's worth separating those numbers from a different sample: so far in the 2026 Liga MX season playing at home, Atlético San Luis is averaging 1 goal scored and 1.34 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of those matches, with its most productive scoring window falling between the 46th and 60th minutes across just 3 games. Rafa Llorente shows up as the team's top scorer in that home sample with 3 goals. Guadalajara, playing on the road this season and also over 3 games, averages 1 goal scored and 0.66 conceded, with 33% of matches ending in a shutout and its best scoring stretch between the 61st and 75th minutes; Roberto Alvarado leads the way there with 4 goals.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor the home side either: of 8 meetings, Guadalajara has won 4, Atlético San Luis 3, with 1 draw, and Guadalajara has outscored San Luis 13 goals to 11.

Probable lineups

With medium confidence, Atlético San Luis projects to line up with Andrés Sánchez in goal, a back four of Miguel García, Eduardo Águila, Román Torres and Benjamín Galindo, a midfield of Sébastien Salles-Lamonge, Óscar Macías and David Rodríguez, and a front two of Rafa Llorente and Felipe Mora. Guadalajara, also as an estimate, would go with Raúl Rangel in goal, Luis Romo, Diego Campillo and Miguel Gómez across the back, Rubén González, Omar Govea, Hugo Camberos and Richard Ledezma in midfield, and an attacking trio of Roberto Alvarado, Ricardo Marín and Efraín Álvarez.

What the numbers say

Our model has Guadalajara as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin:

The 45% figure for Guadalajara stands against 28% for Atlético San Luis, but the 27% chance of a draw makes clear the gap isn't as wide as the table might suggest. These are our own estimates based on the season's trends, not betting odds. The expected goals projection, 2.95 in total, lines up with two other readings: just a 17% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals, but a 67% chance both teams find the net.

With Guadalajara arriving in better form and Atlético San Luis needing to rediscover home victories, this game promises a bit of everything: not many goals overall, but both nets in danger.