Gyokeres scores, Alajbegovic answers: Bosnia and Sweden draw 1-1 at Bilino Polje

VAR wiped out a goal from Viktor Gyokeres in the 16th minute, and that moment set the tone for a strange night at Bilino Polje. In the end, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Sweden played to a 1-1 draw, a scoreline that suggests an even contest but doesn't quite tell the story of a match Sweden controlled for long stretches.

Sweden's Gyokeres thought he'd broken the deadlock almost as soon as the game began, but a video assistant referee review chalked off the goal and the score stayed level. It wasn't the only time the Swedish forward came close: between the 4th and 21st minutes he tested the Bosnian goalkeeper on at least three occasions without luck. Bosnia answered through Kerim Alajbegovic and Esmir Bajraktarevic, who also had their moments before the break, though the first half ended scoreless.

The opening goal finally arrived in the second half. In the 60th minute, Gyokeres popped up again, this time with no room for debate: he struck a right-footed shot from the center of the box, set up by Alexander Bernhardsson, to make it 1-0 for Sweden. It looked like the blow that would decide the match in favor of the visitors, who had been the more threatening side all night.

But Bosnia had an answer in reserve. In the 79th minute, Kerim Alajbegovic struck a right-footed shot from outside the box off a free kick that curled in off the right side of the Swedish goal to make it 1-1, the final score. It was the reward for the persistence of a team that, despite having fewer chances, knew how to show up at just the right moment.

What the numbers say

The stats confirm Sweden was the sharper side going forward, even though possession was split almost evenly.

The gap also shows up in the expected goals tally calculated after the match based on the shots taken: 1.16 for Sweden against just 0.16 for Bosnia. Those numbers back up what was visible on the field: the Swedes created more and better chances, but Bosnia's equalizer ended up being a fair result given how little the home side had to work with.

The result also runs counter, in part, to what we projected before kickoff. In our preview we had Sweden as favorites with a 48% chance of winning, against 29% for Bosnia and 23% for a draw, and we projected a combined total of 3.74 goals between the two sides. In the end there were only two goals and a split of the points, far from the high scoring script we had anticipated.

What it means in the standings

The draw leaves Sweden atop Group B4 with 7 points, while Bosnia and Herzegovina stays in second with 5, a gap of 2 points between the two sides. Both teams remain unbeaten so far in the competition, something today's result only reinforced: neither left Bilino Polje with a loss to regret, though Sweden walked away with the feeling that the match could have been theirs.

For Bosnia, the point reinforces the idea of a team that doesn't give up until the final whistle, something it had already shown in the closing stretch of this very match. For Sweden, there's the frustration of an early disallowed goal and a string of squandered chances that, in the end, cost them the three points on this matchday of the UEFA Nations League.