Hellas Verona Stuns Cagliari With 86th-Minute Counter to Snatch Coppa Italia Win Despite Hosts' Dominance

Hellas Verona walked away from the Unipol Domus with a gut punch delivered in the 86th minute that left Cagliari empty-handed despite controlling large stretches of the match. The final score, 1-2, in the Coppa Italia, was settled by a Samuele Mulattieri counterattack that struck right when a draw looked like it would be enough to leave the home fans satisfied.

The match opened with Hellas Verona causing problems in the air and never letting Cagliari settle on the ball. That pressure paid off in the 22nd minute: Abdou Harroui popped up in the middle of the box and finished with his right foot into the center of the goal to make it 0-1. Before halftime, the visitors had more chances to extend the lead, but the score held, and the first half closed with Hellas Verona in front.

In the second half, Cagliari pushed forward with more urgency and found its reward in the 56th minute. Paul Mendy connected on a left-footed strike from the middle of the box that curled into the top corner, off an assist from Alieu Fadera, to make it 1-1. That goal opened the game up: the home side looked set to complete the turnaround and created more chances, including efforts from Alessandro Romano and Riccardo Ciervo that failed to find the target.

But Hellas Verona had an answer waiting for the closing stretch. In the 86th minute, off a counterattack, Mulattieri (who had come on at halftime) finished low, just inside the left post, for the final 1-2. Cagliari kept pushing until the end, with a header from Michel Adopo that went just wide in stoppage time, but there were no more goals.

The Numbers

Cagliari controlled possession and generated more offensive volume, but couldn't turn that edge into goals.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Cagliari generated 1.199 expected goals against 1.133 for Hellas Verona, a razor-thin margin that shows just how even the game was in terms of clear chances, even though the home side had more of the ball.

The preview we published had Cagliari as the favorite, with a 55% chance of winning against 16% for Hellas Verona and a 29% chance of a draw, along with expected goals of 1.48 for the hosts against 0.67 for the visitors. What happened at the Unipol Domus was the exact opposite of what we projected: Hellas Verona took home the three points despite being, on paper, the side with fewer chances of winning.

Cagliari is left with the feeling of having deserved more, having outdone Cagliari in possession, shots and corners. But soccer rewarded Hellas Verona's efficiency, as it made the most of two well-timed blows, one at the start and one at the death, to walk away with a result that ran counter to everything expected before kickoff.