Winless Hoffenheim hosts unbeaten favorite Lyon in Europa League

Two completely opposite starts to the season collide at the SNP Arena. TSG Hoffenheim arrives without a single point in the Europa League, while Lyon has yet to taste defeat in the competition. With only two matchdays played the standings don't mean much yet, but the gap in form between the two sides is already becoming clear.

Hoffenheim has lost both of its matches so far in the tournament, scoring two goals and conceding five, and across its last five games in all competitions it has managed just one win against four losses. That lone bright spot came at the tail end of that rough stretch, which at least gives the German club a bit of a confidence boost heading into this match. In this season's Europa League, both home and away, Hoffenheim has failed to keep a clean sheet in any match, and its most productive scoring window has come between the 61st and 75th minutes, with Koki Machida and Fisnik Asllani among the scorers in that span.

Lyon, on the other hand, has a perfect record in the competition: two games played, two won, five goals scored and three allowed. Over its last five matches overall, Lyon has picked up four wins and just one loss, a far sturdier run of form than its upcoming opponent. In that same Europa League sample, two matches home and away, Lyon has also failed to post a clean sheet, though its most productive stretch comes early, between the 0th and 15th minutes, with Keito Nakamura, Noah Nartey and Ernest Nuamah on the scoresheet in those games.

In the competition's overall table, which groups all 36 teams without separate groups, Lyon sits in 8th place with 6 points, while Hoffenheim is down in 30th with none. The gap between the two stands at 6 points, a fairly accurate reflection of how each side has fared through these first two matchdays.

The head-to-head history offers no clear edge either: in their three previous meetings there wasn't a single winner, with three draws and an even split of goals, seven apiece. A tightly matched history that stands in contrast to where each team finds itself right now.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability, Christian Ilzer's Hoffenheim could start with Oliver Baumann in goal, a back line of Vladimir Coufal, Ozan Kabak, Koki Machida and Mats Rots, a midfield of Leon Avdullahu, Adam Hlozek, Wouter Burger, Bambase Conte and Adam Daghim, and Tim Lemperle leading the attack.

On the other side, with low reliability based on recent lineups, Paulo Fonseca's Lyon could field Dominik Greif in goal, Zachary Athekame, Abner Vinicius, Moussa Niakhate and Felix Bacher across the back, Tyler Morton, Mads Bidstrup and Corentin Tolisso in midfield, and an attacking trio of Pavel Sulc, Ernest Nuamah and Lois Openda.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Lyon a certain edge, though not an overwhelming one. Here's how the probabilities break down:

The breakdown makes Lyon the favorite, but it doesn't rule out a draw or an upset from the home side, with all three outcomes carrying a reasonable share. In expected goals, our own model projects 1.44 for Hoffenheim and 1.88 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.31 that points to a match with scoring chances for both sides. Worth noting that this is an in-house projection, not a betting line.

With Hoffenheim in need of a statement result to get back on track and Lyon looking to keep its perfect run alive, the SNP Arena promises a clash of two very different needs in the Europa League.