Hoffenheim and Stuttgart Clash in Battle to Escape the Bottom: History Clearly Favors the Visitors

Two losses from two and six goals already conceded: TSG Hoffenheim arrives at this game at the bottom of the table, pointless, and needs to stop the bleeding as soon as possible. Standing across from them will be a VfB Stuttgart side that isn't exactly brimming with solidity either, but at least knows what it feels like to win this season. The match, part of the Bundesliga, is being played at the SNP Arena and carries plenty of weight for both sides, though for different reasons.

Hoffenheim sits in 16th place with a record of two matches played, zero wins, zero draws and two losses, scoring 4 goals and conceding 6. Recent form hasn't helped either: over the last five matches the club has managed just one win, one draw and three losses. Looking at trend data for this 2026 Bundesliga campaign (home and away combined, across just 2 matches), the team averages 2 goals scored and 3 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and tends to score most often between the 16th and 30th minutes. Ozan Kabak shows up among the scorers in that sample, along with Tim Lemperle and Leon Avdullahu.

Stuttgart, ninth in the standings, has a record of 2 matches played, 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Over their last five matches they've picked up three wins and two losses, a more encouraging run than their opponent's. In their own trend sample for this same Bundesliga season (also across 2 matches, home and away), they average 2.5 goals scored and 3 conceded per game, with no clean sheets, and their most productive stretch comes between the 46th and 60th minutes. Josha Vagnoman leads the scoring in that sample, with Ermedin Demirovic and Grischa Prömel also featuring. The gap between the two clubs in the standings is just 3 points.

A History That Clearly Favors the Visitors

The head-to-head record between these two sides carries a striking detail: in 8 matches, Hoffenheim has never beaten Stuttgart. There have been 6 draws and 2 away wins, with a combined goal tally of 7 to 13 in Stuttgart's favor. That's a heavy piece of history for a team that also arrives in desperate need of points.

Probable Lineups

With medium reliability, Hoffenheim's likely starting eleven has Oliver Baumann in goal, a back line of Coufal, Hajdari, Kabak and Rots, a midfield featuring Avdullahu, Burger, Daghim and Wimmer, and Hlozek alongside Lemperle up front. On Stuttgart's side, with lower reliability, the projected lineup would have Bredlow in goal, Mittelstädt, Chabot and Jeltsch in defense, Stiller, Undav and Prömel in midfield, and an attack loaded with Führich, Demirovic, Leweling and Pejcinovic. Both lineups are estimates drawn from recent matches, not official confirmations.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Stuttgart the role of favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin:

The split isn't overwhelming: nearly half the probability favors Stuttgart, but a 29% chance for Hoffenheim and a 23% chance of a draw leave the door open. Our model's expected goals sit at 1.67 for Hoffenheim and 2.12 for Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.79 that points to a match with chances at both ends. Keep in mind this is our own estimate, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With Hoffenheim desperate to pick up its first point and Stuttgart looking to confirm that its recent uptick in form was no fluke, the SNP Arena is set for a match with plenty on the line for both sides of the table.