Houston Dynamo look to snap winless skid against surging FC Dallas

Houston Dynamo FC hasn't won in five straight matches, and the club carries that stretch of stumbles into a game against one of the Western Conference's hottest teams. Shell Energy Stadium hosts FC Dallas in an MLS clash pitting the fifth place team against the third, separated by just four points in the standings.

The Dynamo arrive without a win in their last five outings: three draws and two losses, with not a single victory in that span. Over the course of the season, though, the overall record remains competitive: 13 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in 29 matches, with 39 goals scored and 37 allowed. Houston sits fifth in the Western Conference with 46 points. FC Dallas, meanwhile, is in better form: three wins and a draw in its last five games, with only one loss mixed in. Its season record stands at 14 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in 29 matches, with 53 goals scored and 45 conceded, good for third place with 50 points.

Playing at home in MLS this season, across a sample of 14 matches, the Dynamo average 1.222 goals scored and 0.849 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 43% of those matches, and tend to carry more offensive weight between the 76th and 90th minutes. FC Dallas, on the road and across a sample of 15 matches, averages 1.798 goals scored and 1.663 allowed, with clean sheets in just 20% of those games, and also concentrates its heaviest scoring output late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. These numbers come from different contexts than today's matchup, but they point to two teams that tend to decide games in the closing stretch.

Leading the visitors' attack is Petar Musa, with 19 goals in that away sample, alongside Logan Farrington with 10. On Houston's side, Guilherme stands out as the top scorer with 16 goals, followed by Mateusz Bogusz with 7.

What the History Says

The two sides have met eight times previously, with a balanced record: 2 wins for Houston, 3 draws and 3 wins for FC Dallas. The goal tally is just as even, 10 apiece. It's a history that leaves no clear favorite.

Probable Lineups

Houston Dynamo FC could start Jonathan Bond in goal, a back line with Lawrence Ennali, Lucas Halter, Antônio Carlos and Franco Negri, and a midfield featuring Mateusz Bogusz, Artur, Guilherme, Agustín Bouzat and Héctor Herrera. This is a projected lineup with medium reliability, based on how often these players have started over the last six matches.

On FC Dallas's side, the projection, with low reliability, points to Daniel in goal, a defensive line with Shaq Moore, Osaze Urhoghide and Sebastien Ibeagha, a crowded midfield with Kaick, Ramiro, Ran Binyamin, Bernard Kamungo and Christian Cappis, and up top Joaquín Valiente alongside Logan Farrington.

Odds

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line, and the split is remarkably even: 38% for Houston and 34% for FC Dallas leave the two teams nearly dead even, with the draw (28%) far from out of the question. Our model also projects adjusted expected goals: 1.44 for the home side and 1.37 for the visitors, a combined 2.81 that lines up with the 54% chance given to the match going over 2.5 goals and the 52% probability of both teams scoring.

With Houston needing to snap its winless run and FC Dallas riding the momentum of its recent results, the match at Shell Energy Stadium figures to be decided by small details, possibly in the closing stretch, the same window where both sides tend to show up most often in their season numbers.