Hungary grinds down Georgia behind a Kerkez header and total control of the ball

A Milos Kerkez header just before the half-hour mark was enough to give Hungary a 1-0 win over Georgia at Puskás Aréna, in a match that ended up far more comfortable than the scoreline suggested. The gap wasn't in the result but in everything that surrounded it: Hungary fired 26 shots to Georgia's mere 8, and the sense of control never let up from the opening minutes.

The match was part of the UEFA Nations League, in Group B2, and came with Hungary needing to bounce back after an uneven start. From the opening whistle, the hosts poured forward into the Georgian box: as early as the 3rd minute Alex Tóth tried his luck from outside the area, and in the minutes that followed came attempts from Dániel Lukács, Dominik Szoboszlai, Willi Orbán, Zsolt Nagy and Kerkez, almost all off target. Georgia, far more comfortable on the ball (they would finish with 58.1 percent possession), settled for defending and looking for the occasional counter.

Hungary's patience paid off in the 34th minute: a cross into the box from Dániel Lukács met by a header from Milos Kerkez, who sent the ball low, just inside the left post, for the 1-0. It was the first and only goal of the night, though not for lack of trying: before the break Georgia enjoyed their best spell, with Georges Mikautadze testing the keeper twice and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia also having a go from inside the box, though none of it seriously troubled the Hungarian goalkeeper.

A second half of pure siege

After the restart, Hungary kept setting the tempo. In the space of a few minutes, between the 58th and 61st, they strung together a run of shots that sums up their superiority well: Szoboszlai clipping the crossbar, Orbán with a header, Kerkez also going for it with his head, and two more attempts from Lukács and Márk Csinger, all blocked or off target. Georgia held firm despite the barrage, leaning on a defense that stayed well organized even after Giorgi Kvernadze, Budu Zivzivadze and Zuriko Davitashvili came on to try to freshen up the visitors' attack.

Georgia had a couple of moments of their own, like Lasha Dvali's header in the 74th minute or Zivzivadze's shot that skimmed just past the crossbar shortly after, but they never truly threatened the result. With the clock running down, Hungary kept creating chances: Rajmund Tóth had a go near the end and Milán Vitális also got a sight of goal, but the 1-0 scoreline held.

The numbers behind the dominance

Hungary's 26 shots against Georgia's 8 translate, according to our own expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shot data, into 2.78 xG for the hosts against just 0.69 for the visitors. Those numbers reflect a match in which Hungary created far more than the final score ended up showing.

That gap also stands in contrast to what we had projected before kickoff: we gave Hungary a 32 percent chance of winning, 41 percent for a draw and 27 percent for Georgia, with a combined expected goals figure of just 1.45 (0.77 for Hungary and 0.68 for Georgia). What actually played out on the field was far more one-sided than that balanced forecast suggested.

In the Group B2 standings, Hungary sit on 4 points from 3 matches played, level on points with Ukraine but with a different goal difference, while Georgia remain on 1 point after this setback. The gap between the two sides in the table is 3 points. With Northern Ireland leading the group, the margin for error for both teams remains slim going forward.