Hungary strikes twice late to beat Ukraine 2-1 in Nations League

Ukraine held the equalizer for all of two minutes. Roman Yaremchuk had leveled the score in the 82nd minute with a header that was richly deserved after a second half the hosts dominated, but Hungary answered almost immediately: in the 84th minute, Mark Csinger finished with his left foot to make it 1-2 at the City Arena, Stadion Antona Malatinskeho, in the UEFA Nations League.

The first half ended scoreless but with clear intent from both sides. Ukraine moved the ball more and created the first sparks through Ihor Krasnopir and Matvii Ponomarenko, who tested the keeper twice without finding the target, while Hungary kept its cards close in a match bogged down by fouls. The one notable attempt came from Attila Osvath, who tried his luck from more than 30 yards out, but neither he nor anyone else found the net before halftime. The teams went to the locker room with the score at 0-0.

The second-half turn

The second half opened with Hungary baring its teeth. Just one minute in, Milan Toth made it 0-1 with a left-footed strike from the center of the box, set up by Milan Vitalis, capping an intense start from the Hungarians that also included chances for Osvath and Vitalis in the opening minutes of the half.

Ukraine responded with substitutions: Andrea Maldera turned to the bench, bringing on Yaremchuk, Maksym Khlan and Vladyslav Vanat in search of fresh legs up top. The push paid off in the 82nd minute: after a corner kick, Oleksandr Pikhalionok delivered the cross and Yaremchuk connected with a header from close range to make it 1-1. The stadium barely had time to catch its breath: two minutes later, Rajmund Toth sent in a cross and Mark Csinger finished left-footed to hand the lead back to Hungary and seal the final 1-2.

The match by the numbers

Ukraine was the busier side in terms of overall play, holding more possession and producing more total shots, but Hungary proved more clinical when it mattered.

The estimated xG generated in the match, calculated from shot locations, favors Ukraine with 1.958 against Hungary's 1.354. In other words: the hosts generated more and better chances in terms of cumulative danger, but Hungary's finishing is what ended up deciding the scoreboard.

The result also runs counter to our pre-match projections. Our preview gave Ukraine a 35 percent chance of winning, 39 percent for a draw and just 26 percent for a visitor's win, with expected goals of 0.88 for the home side and 0.71 for the away side (a total of 1.59). Hungary walked away with all three points despite that being the least likely of the three outcomes in our pre-match model, and did so with two goals, surpassing what those numbers anticipated.

What it means for the standings

The result carries weight in Group B2. Hungary moved to 7 points from 4 matches played (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Ukraine remained on 4 points, also from 4 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses), with a negative goal difference of -3. The gap between the two sides stands at 3 points following this head-to-head meeting, a margin that will shape what each team has left to play for in the rest of the group stage.