Huracan hosts a struggling Aldosivi as the clear favorite, but with no guarantees

Huracan arrives at this matchup having followed three straight draws with two wins, while Aldosivi shows up at Tomas Adolfo Ducó as the virtual bottom-dweller of the lower half, with just eight points through ten matches. The clash belongs to Argentina's Primera Division and carries the feel of a direct test between a team fighting to climb into the upper half of the table and another in urgent need of a turnaround.

El Globo has put together a record of 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses so far this tournament, with 10 goals scored and 8 allowed across its 10 matches played. Over its last five outings the club hasn't lost, picking up two wins and three draws, a run that keeps it unbeaten even if it hasn't fully pulled away from the chasing pack. At home this season and competition, Huracan averages 1.38 goals scored and 1 allowed per match, with 38% of its games finishing with a clean sheet, and it tends to do its damage late in the first half, between minutes 31 and 45.

Aldosivi, on the other hand, is going through a rough stretch: 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the tournament, with 12 goals scored and 16 allowed. Over its last five matches it won twice but lost three times, a back and forth that hasn't brought it any stability. Playing on the road this season, the Tiburon manages just 0.38 goals scored per match and allows 1.76, without a single clean sheet in that sample, a number that paints a demanding picture for its defense away from home.

What the standings say

In Group B, Huracan sits sixth with 16 points, just two behind the leader, while Aldosivi is thirteenth with 8 points. The gap between the two is 8 points, a clear reflection of the opposite moments each side is going through.

An even head-to-head record, with a bit more firepower from the visitor

The series between the two sides shows 8 matches played, with 2 wins for Huracan, 4 draws and 2 wins for Aldosivi. In terms of goals, the visiting side holds a slight edge: 10 goals scored by Aldosivi compared to 8 for Huracan across that shared history.

The likely lineups

Based on recent lineups, Huracan is projected to start with Hernan Galindez in goal; Lucas Blondel, Maximo Palazzo, Cesar Ibanez and Hugo Nervo across the back; Rodrigo Fernandez Cedres, Oscar Cortes, Facundo Kalinger, Facundo Waller and Juan Bisanz in midfield; and Jordy Caicedo up front as the reference point, the top scorer of the home-form sample with 8 goals.

Aldosivi, also on a projected basis, would line up with Lucas Acosta between the posts; Nestor Breitenbruch, Joaquin Pombo, Elias Lopez and Mateo Vales across the back line; Nicolas Gaitan, Lucas Castro, Martin Garcia and Bautista Dadin in midfield; and Andres Vombergar alongside Nicolas Cordero up top.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives Huracan the edge with a 52% probability of winning, though a draw stands out as a far from negligible option at 32%, even ahead of the chance of a visiting win, which sits at 16%. These figures confirm the home side as the logical favorite, but leave no room to call this a formality. The expected goals back up that reading: 1.33 for Huracan against 0.64 for Aldosivi, for an estimated total of 1.98 goals in the match. It's worth noting this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a closed forecast. On top of that, there's a 44% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 33% chance both teams score, two indicators suggesting a tighter match than the final score might end up reflecting.

With Huracan looking to extend its solid recent run at home and Aldosivi in need of a show of strength away from its own stadium, Tomas Adolfo Ducó will host a matchup where the favorite is clear, but where the odds still leave the door open for surprises.