Huracán looks to cash in on home advantage against Deportivo Riestra

Huracán hosts Deportivo Riestra at the Tomás Adolfo Ducó stadium in the Argentine Primera División, in a midtable clash that could give the home side some momentum in a tournament that remains tightly bunched around the middle of the standings.

Current form

Huracán sits in 7th place in Group A, with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 matches played, scoring 4 goals and conceding 4. Over its last five matches the club has picked up two wins, a draw and two losses, an inconsistent stretch, though Jordy Caicedo remains a reliable source of goals: the forward has scored 8 this season, well ahead of the rest of the squad. The Parque Patricios side averages 1.38 goals scored per game and tends to do most of its damage late in the first half, between minutes 31 and 45.

Deportivo Riestra, meanwhile, sits in 15th place in the group with a record of 2 wins and 3 losses in 5 matches, with no draws, scoring 6 goals and conceding 5. Recent form for the Bajo Flores club is concerning, with one win, one draw and three losses in its last five outings. Its offensive output has also been strikingly low, at just 0.12 goals scored per game over that recent stretch, far off the pace it showed earlier in the campaign. Antony Alonso is the team's top attacking threat, with 2 goals this season.

Head-to-head record

The history between these two sides is fairly even, though the visitor holds a slight edge on the scoreboard: of 7 matches played, Huracán has won 1, there have been 4 draws and Deportivo Riestra has won 2, with a combined goal tally of 3 to 4 in favor of the Bajo Flores club. Recent meetings leave little room to argue that either side has had a clear upper hand.

Probable lineups

For Huracán, the projected lineup (with medium reliability based on recent call-ups) would have Hernán Galíndez in goal; Máximo Palazzo, Lucas Blondel, Hugo Nervo and César Ibáñez across the back line; Leonardo Gil, Facundo Kalinger and Emmanuel Ojeda in midfield; and an attacking trio of Óscar Cortés, Juan Bisanz and Jordy Caicedo.

Deportivo Riestra could field Ignacio Arce between the posts; a back line of Facundo Miño, Cristian Paz, Nicolás Sansotre, Carlos Quintana and Mariano Bracamonte; Milton Céliz, Antony Alonso, Pablo Monje and Braian Sánchez in midfield; and Alexander Díaz as the lone striker.

Match probabilities

The model gives Huracán a clear but not overwhelming edge, with a 50% chance of winning compared to 16% for Deportivo Riestra, while a draw stands as a real possibility at 34%. Expected goals back up that outlook as well: the projection calls for an average of 1.19 goals for the home side and 0.56 for the visitors, a combined total of 1.75 goals, a figure consistent with the trend that only 31% of these matchups go over 2.5 total goals. It's worth noting this is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

Looking ahead

With Caicedo in scoring form and Deportivo Riestra mired in a notable offensive drought in its recent outings, Huracán has a real chance to make the most of home advantage and extend its edge in recent head-to-head meetings. El Ducó will host a matchup in which the home side goes in as the favorite, though with no room to relax against a rival that badly needs points.