Independiente Rivadavia routs Racing Club despite Alex Arce's missed penalty

Alex Arce missed a penalty in the 8th minute, but he still ended up scoring the goal that sealed the rout, deep into second-half stoppage time. In between, Independiente Rivadavia turned around a match that started against them and finished up 3-1 winners over Racing Club at Estadio Bautista Gargantini, in Argentina's Primera Division.

The first half was chaotic from the opening whistle. In the 2nd minute, Mateo Martinez brought down Leonel Bucca inside the box, and VAR confirmed the penalty in the 4th minute. But Arce, who stepped up to take it, shot to his right and the Racing goalkeeper read his intentions to deny him in the 8th minute. What looked like a costly missed opportunity turned into a real problem when, in the 19th minute, Matko Miljevic showed up from outside the box with a low shot that hugged the post, set up by Matias Zaracho, to make it 0-1 for the visitors.

Independiente Rivadavia did not let the setback rattle them and found the equalizer before the break: in the 38th minute, after a couple of rebounds inside the area, Gonzalo Rios poked the ball home with his right foot to make it 1-1. That was the score at halftime, after a closing stretch of the first half in which Racing had its own chances, including a shot from Miljevic that struck the post.

The second half belonged to the home side

In the second half, Independiente Rivadavia took control of the scoreline. In the 69th minute, off a corner kick, Fabrizio Sartori, who had just come on as a substitute, finished from close range to make it 2-1. Racing tried to respond with the substitutions they brought on, but they could not generate enough danger to trouble the home defense again. And deep into stoppage time, in the 91st minute, that earlier penalty miss from Arce was left in the past: the forward finished from point-blank range, set up by Jose Florentin, to seal the final 3-1.

The numbers behind the result

The most striking detail is that Racing had more of the ball and completed more passes, yet Independiente Rivadavia was far more incisive in the opposition's box.

Our xG estimate, calculated from the shots taken in the match, backs up that reading: Independiente Rivadavia produced 4.151 expected goals against just 1.209 for Racing, a wide gap that confirms the home side deserved the result well beyond the final score.

The pre-match projection had pointed to a much tighter contest, with a 42% chance for the home side, 31% for a draw and 27% for the visitors, with a total expected goals figure of just 2.39. Reality ended up far from that forecast: there were four goals and a clear win for the home team, which had gone in as only a narrow favorite on paper, not a side destined to run away with it.

What it means in the standings

In Group B, Independiente Rivadavia arrived at the match with 11 points from 7 games played (3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses), while Racing Club had just 5 points from the same number of matches, with 1 win, 2 draws and 4 losses. The gap between the two sides in the standings was 6 points before this game, and today's result only confirms how differently the two teams are faring in the competition right now.