Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense: home side favored at 61% in Copa Libertadores round of 16

Independiente Rivadavia hosts Fluminense at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza for the second leg of the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores. The first leg in Brazil finished 0-0, so the tie remains completely open and tonight's winner will be decided entirely by what happens in Mendoza, with the first-leg result having tilted the balance for neither side.

How the two teams arrive

The home side is enjoying a solid run in the tournament: in its Copa Libertadores record it has played 7 matches, winning 5, drawing 2 and losing none, with 15 goals scored against just 6 conceded. This is a team averaging 2 goals scored per game and just 0.667 conceded, with its most productive stretch coming between the 31st and 45th minutes. Alex Arce is its top offensive threat, with 8 of the team's goals in the competition. Still, over its last 5 matches (a different and more recent sample) things have cooled off somewhat: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses.

Fluminense, meanwhile, has a tighter record in the tournament: of 7 matches played, it won 2, drew 3 and lost 2, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded, a far more even balance than its rival's. Its offensive output has been modest (0.333 goals per game) and its most dangerous stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Over its last 5 matches it has shown signs of a partial turnaround: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with John Kennedy as its top scorer in the competition (2 goals).

Head-to-head history

The recent head-to-head between the two sides includes 3 matches, with 1 win for Independiente Rivadavia and 2 draws, and no wins for Fluminense. On goals, the Mendoza side holds a 3-2 edge, a slight advantage that fits the context of an otherwise even matchup by the broader statistics.

Probable lineups

With low reliability since this is an estimate based on recent matches, Independiente Rivadavia could field Nicolas Bolcato in goal, a back line of Ivan Villalba, Alejo Osella, Sheyko Studer and Juan Manuel Elordi, a midfield of Tomas Bottari, Matias Fernandez, Jose Florentin, Gonzalo Rios and Leonard Costa, and Alex Arce as the attacking reference.

On the Brazilian side, Fluminense's probable starting eleven would have Fabio between the posts, a defense made up of Ignacio, Guga, Igor Rabello, Rene and Guilherme Arana, a midfield of Martinelli, Yeferson Soteldo, Hercules and Agustin Canobbio, and Hulk up top.

Match probabilities

EnPelotas's model lists Independiente Rivadavia as the clear favorite at 61%, against 28% for a draw and just 11% for a visiting win. The expected goals estimate (an in-house xG figure, not official) backs up that forecast too: 1.5 expected goals for the home side against 0.5 for the visitors, a combined total of 2 that points to a match with few net thrills but with Independiente Rivadavia as the offensive protagonist. The trends line up with that reading: just a 17% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring, numbers befitting the tight contest this second leg of the round of 16 promises to be.

With the tie completely open after the scoreless first leg, Independiente Rivadavia has the chance in Mendoza to lean on home advantage and its sharper scoring form to tip the series in its favor, against a Fluminense side that will look to hold on and pounce on any opening in the second half, its most lethal stretch.