Inter Miami, with Messi, hosts a D.C. United that's drawing more than it's winning

Lionel Messi has 21 goals playing at home in MLS this season, and Inter Miami CF hosts at Nu Stadium a D.C. United side that's been drawing more than winning lately. These are two very different realities in the Eastern Conference table, and this matchup looks set to reflect that.

Inter Miami sits third in the East with 46 points, just four back from the top, after a 12-10-5 record through 27 matches, with 64 goals scored and 50 allowed. Over their last five matches, Cristian González's side has posted three draws, one win and one loss, a run more uneven than their table position suggests. D.C. United, meanwhile, sits 11th with 30 points from 26 matches (6 wins, 12 draws, 8 losses, 34 goals for and 42 against), with the gap between the two clubs standing at 16 points. Over their last five, René Weiler's side has also managed three draws, one win and one loss, so neither team arrives on a recent winning streak, though Miami's overall body of work this season is considerably stronger.

Playing at home in MLS this season, Inter Miami averages 2.70 goals scored and 1.99 allowed per match across a sample of 13 games, keeping a clean sheet in just 8 percent of those matches, with their most productive stretch coming between minutes 31 and 45. D.C. United, on the road and across a sample of 12 matches, averages 1.34 goals scored and 1.41 allowed, with 25 percent of their matches ending in a clean sheet and their best offensive stretch coming late, between minutes 76 and 90. This is contextual data rather than this tournament's own record, but it helps explain why an open game is expected.

What the head-to-head says

The two sides have met 8 times, with a clear edge for Inter Miami: 5 wins to D.C. United's 1, with 2 draws, and 16 goals scored by the Florida club to 11 for the visitors.

The projected lineups

Miami's likely XI, rated high confidence based on recent data, would have Dayne St. Clair in goal behind a back line of Casemiro, Fricio Caicedo, Maximiliano Falcón and Ian Fray. In midfield, expect Yannick Bright, Rodrigo De Paul and Facundo Mura, with a front three of Luis Suárez, Lionel Messi and Germán Berterame, the club's three leading scorers in home matches this season.

On the visiting side, also rated high confidence, Sean Johnson would start in goal, with Keisuke Kurokawa, Lucas Bartlett, Kye Rowles and Silvan Hefti across the back. The likely midfield would be Andre Dozzell, Kimito Nono and Jackson Hopkins, while up top the attack would feature Peglow, Louis Munteanu and Nathan Ordaz.

The odds

According to our model, the home side is the clear favorite:

This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a closed prediction, but 71 percent leaves little room for doubt about who goes in as the favorite. The expected goals numbers back that reading up: 2.91 for Inter Miami against 1.22 for D.C. United, a combined total of 4.12. On top of that, the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals sits at 63 percent, and the chance both teams score stands at 67 percent, so the most likely script is a game with goals at both ends, though with the home side carrying nearly all of the offensive weight.

With Messi as Miami's top reference point at home and a D.C. United side that has found points more through draws than wins, Nu Stadium is set for a match where the home favoritism looks backed by the numbers, but where both teams' recent form suggests nothing should be considered settled before kickoff.