Inter Miami, favored with Messi up front, visits an Atlanta United team looking to climb out of the basement

Mercedes-Benz Stadium plays host to a match between two clubs living very different realities: an Atlanta United side fighting to avoid sliding further down the table, and an Inter Miami CF team comfortably breathing among the top spots in MLS. Both arrive with 29 matches played this season, but they are separated by 22 points in the Eastern Conference standings.

The home side sits 14th with a record of 8 wins, 6 draws and 15 losses, scoring 36 goals and conceding 48. Over its last five matches it has posted two wins, two draws and a loss, an up-and-down stretch that keeps it far from safe ground. Inter Miami CF, on the other hand, sits second with 14 wins, 10 draws and just 5 losses, scoring 70 goals and conceding 50 so far this season. Its recent form is nothing to scoff at either: three wins, a draw and a loss in its last five matches.

One piece of context worth examining closely: in home matches this MLS season (a sample of 14 games), Atlanta United averages 1.429 goals scored and 1.864 goals allowed per match, with clean sheets in just 7% of those games. Inter Miami CF, on the road over that same sample of 14 matches, averages 2.071 goals scored and 1.719 allowed, with clean sheets 21% of the time. These numbers come from a specific sample rather than the whole season, but they help explain why this one shapes up as an open game: Atlanta tends to concede at home, and Miami tends to score on the road.

Within that same road trend, Lionel Messi leads the way with 23 goals, followed by Luis Suarez with 15 and German Berterame with 8. On the home side, within the home trend, Aleksey Miranchuk and Miguel Almiron share the top spot with 6 goals apiece, and Tristan Muyumba has 4.

The head-to-head record and likely absences

The all-time series between the two clubs is split almost evenly: of 8 meetings, Atlanta United has won 3, 2 ended in a draw and Inter Miami CF has taken 3, with the home side scoring 14 goals and the visitor 16 across that stretch.

For this match, Atlanta United's likely lineup (a medium-confidence estimate based on its recent lineups) would have Lucas Hoyos in goal, a back line of Elias Baez, Junior Alonso and Tomas Jacob, a midfield of Mauricio Amaro, Miguel Almiron, Giuliano Galoppo, Jay Fortune, Aleksey Miranchuk and Tristan Muyumba, with Breel Embolo leading the attack.

On the Inter Miami CF side, the probable lineup has Dayne St. Clair in goal, a back line with Casemiro, Gonzalo Lujan, Sergio Reguilon and Micael, a midfield of Rodrigo De Paul, Matias Galarza and Yannick Bright, and an attacking trio of Luis Suarez, Lionel Messi and German Berterame.

What the numbers say

Our model clearly favors the visitors, though it does not rule out a surprise:

The 55% figure for Inter Miami CF marks a clear edge, though the draw (22%) and a home win (23%) are practically even with each other, so a result for Atlanta United at home cannot be ruled out. This is our model's own projection, not a betting line. The expected goals figures back up that reading: 1.41 for Atlanta United against 2.22 for Inter Miami CF, a combined total of 3.63 that lines up with a 75% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams score.

With those numbers on the table, the match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium looks set to see both nets find the back of the goal. The question is whether Atlanta United can use its home field to close the gap that separates it from Inter Miami CF in the Eastern Conference standings.