Japan Hosts Venezuela in Hiroshima as Clear Favorite, But History Sides With La Vinotinto

Japan romped to a 3-1 win in its opening match of this International Friendlies cycle, and now hosts Venezuela at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima looking to confirm that start was no fluke. For La Vinotinto, meanwhile, the match is a chance to test themselves against a side from another continent and build momentum ahead of their upcoming commitments.

Japan's record in this competition is short but decisive: one match played, one win, three goals scored and one conceded. Widening the lens to their last five matches overall, Hajime Moriyasu's side has posted two wins, two draws and a loss, an uneven run that contrasts with the solidity shown in their recent debut. In the trend sample for this same competition and season (just one match, combining home and away), Japan is averaging 3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with Kuryu Matsuki, Kento Shiogai and Ayase Ueda among the scorers, and their most productive stretch falling between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Venezuela has no record yet in this competition, but arrives with decent recent form: two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five matches. In a separate sample of seven International Friendlies matches during the 2025 season (also combining home and away), La Vinotinto is averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per match, with 43 percent of those games ending in a clean sheet. Chuchu Ramirez stands out as their top offensive reference in that sample with two goals, and their best scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes.

The head-to-head history between the two sides is brief but does not favor the hosts: they have met twice, with one draw and one win for Venezuela, and an aggregate score of 2 goals for Japan to 5 for La Vinotinto.

Possible Lineups

Japan could start with Zion Suzuki in goal, a back line of Hiroki Ito, Ko Itakura and Takehiro Tomiyasu, and a midfield featuring Keito Nakamura, Kaishu Sano and Daichi Kamada. Up top, the projected group includes Ritsu Doan, Ayase Ueda, Daizen Maeda and Junya Ito. This lineup is inferred from recent matches, not confirmed, and carries low reliability.

Venezuela, with medium reliability in its projection, could field Jose Contreras in goal, a back line of Teo Quintero, Nahuel Ferraresi, Jon Aramburu and Luis Balbo, a crowded midfield of Gleiker Mendoza, Cristian Casseres, Telasco Segovia, Dani Pereira and Ender Echenique, and Chuchu Ramirez as the lone striker.

What the Numbers Say

Our model has Japan as the clear favorite, though not overwhelmingly so:

Our model's expected goals figures are 1.60 for Japan and 0.54 for Venezuela, an estimated total of 2.14 for the match. The 62 percent home favoritism is high, but it leaves the door open: combined, a draw and a visiting win add up to 38 percent, so La Vinotinto isn't arriving without a chance. It's worth noting these figures are our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a sportsbook line.

With Japan looking to reaffirm the level shown in its opener and Venezuela trying to reverse the recent history between the two sides, the match in Hiroshima promises to be more than a routine fixture on the calendar.