João Félix bags a hat trick as Al Nassr rout Pakhtakor Tashkent

Fourteen minutes. That's all it took for Al Nassr to grab the lead, and within a little over half an hour the game was already decided. Ange Postecoglou's side thrashed Pakhtakor Tashkent 2-6 at the Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium in a Group Stage match (Group West) that saw João Félix score a hat trick.

The script was clear from the opening whistle. Abdullah Al Hamddan had given a warning with a shot off the post in the 5th minute, and in the 14th he made no mistake, finishing with his right foot from inside the box into the top corner, assisted by João Félix. Two minutes later came the immediate response: Félix himself, from the center of the box, made it 0-2. Pakhtakor thought they had pulled one back in the 25th minute through Akmal Mozgovoy, but VAR ruled it out. And before the hosts could react, João Félix popped up again in the 31st minute to grab his second goal of the afternoon and stretch the lead to three.

The hosts did manage to get back into the match before halftime: Flamarion, set up by Sherzod Nasrullaev, made it 1-3 in the 35th minute after a VAR review ultimately confirmed the goal. That's how the teams went into the break, though the story of the match had essentially already been written.

The second half sealed it

The second half turned into an offensive showcase for the visitors. Abdulelah Al Amri extended the lead with a header in the 52nd minute, off a João Félix corner delivery. Nine minutes later, Abdulrahman Ghareeb finished off a counterattack, set up by Sadio Mané, to make it 1-5. Pakhtakor scored a goal of their own worth noting in the 74th minute, with Dostonbek Khamdamov finishing from point-blank range, but Ângelo put the finishing touch on the rout in the 78th minute, assisted by Al Hamddan, for the final 2-6.

The match stats back up what was seen on the field, though with some nuance: possession was split almost evenly and Pakhtakor actually had more shots overall, but Al Nassr was far more clinical at the key moments.

According to our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Pakhtakor generated 3.318 expected goals compared to Al Nassr's 2.104, a figure that stands out against the final score: the hosts had some weighty chances, but the visitors' finishing made the difference.

The contrast with our preview projections is striking. Our model gave Pakhtakor just a 20% chance of winning, a 30% chance of a draw and a 50% chance of an Al Nassr win, with a combined total of 2.27 expected goals for the whole match. Reality blew past that figure by more than three times over, with eight goals on the final scoreboard and attacking output well beyond what was anticipated.

What the result means

With this win, Al Nassr moves to 6 points in the group, just 4 points behind the pair sharing the lead. Pakhtakor, meanwhile, remains on 2 points after four matches played, still without a win in the competition. The rout leaves a clear picture: a lethal Al Nassr in the final third, with João Félix as the standout performer, and a Pakhtakor side that competed in stretches but paid dearly for every defensive lapse.