Last-place Juárez, with a -24 goal differential, hosts a Querétaro side in free fall

Few stats sum up a tournament better than Juárez's goal differential: -24. With that mark and just 5 points through 14 matches, the Bravos sit dead last at 18th place, and on Sunday they host at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez a Querétaro side that, while no upper-table outfit itself, arrives with a far more solid campaign. It is a Liga MX clash between two very different realities, though both teams' recent form suggests nothing should be taken for granted.

The hosts haven't won in a long stretch: over their last five matches they've racked up three losses and two draws, with no victories at all. On the season, their record stands at just 1 win, 2 draws and 11 losses, with 9 goals scored and 33 allowed, a differential that explains their spot in the standings. Querétaro, managed by Esteban González, sits in a far more comfortable position: ninth place with 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in 13 matches, 17 goals scored and 18 allowed. Still, they arrive bruised: of their last five outings they won the first two before dropping three straight, so they're not exactly riding into Ciudad Juárez at their best.

The gap between the two sides in the standings is 15 points, which makes the difference in season performance clear, though Querétaro's recent skid adds some noise to that favoritism on paper.

What the head-to-head says

The series has favored Querétaro: of the 8 meetings on record, the visitors have won 4, there have been 3 draws and Juárez has won just 1. In terms of goals, Querétaro has scored 13 to Juárez's 7, a trend that lines up with both teams' current form.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs by venue, though these are separate samples and shouldn't be confused with the overall tournament record. At home this 2026 Liga MX season, Juárez averages 0.72 goals scored and 1.72 allowed per match across 7 games, with just 14% of matches ending in a clean sheet; its biggest offensive output comes between the 31st and 45th minutes, and Óscar Estupiñán is by far its go-to man with 6 goals in that sample. Querétaro, on the road, shows more balanced numbers: 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 allowed per match in 7 games, with 43% of matches ending in clean sheets and its most productive stretch between the 61st and 75th minutes, led by Santiago Homenchenko and Alí Ávila with 5 goals each.

Possible lineups

For Juárez, the projected lineup keeps Sebastián Jurado in goal, with Gilberto Sepúlveda, Daniel Piña, Jesús Murillo and Francisco Nevárez across the back line, accompanied in midfield by Leonardo Rodríguez, José Luis Rodríguez, Ricardinho and Rodrigo Dourado, with Óscar Estupiñán up top as the main offensive reference.

For Querétaro, the projection has Guillermo Allison in goal, Daniel Parra, Lucas Abascia, Diego Reyes and Bayron Duarte on defense, Enzo Giménez, Mateo Coronel, Carlo García, Iker Benito and Santiago Homenchenko in midfield, with Alí Ávila at forward. In both cases these are lineups projected from recent matches, not confirmed rosters.

What the numbers show

Our model points to a fairly even match despite the gap in the standings:

As you can see, all three outcomes land very close to each other, with no clear favorite, which runs counter to the huge points gap between the two sides. This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. On top of that, the model puts the expected total goals at 2.60, with a 43% probability the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance both teams find the net.

With Juárez desperate for points and Querétaro looking to snap its recent slide, the match at the Benito Juárez carries more uncertainty than the table alone would suggest.