Winless Juárez looks for first points as Pachuca tries to pull away from the drop zone

With zero points from six matches and a goal difference of -16, Juárez enters this game as the only Liga MX team that still doesn't know what it's like to win or draw. It has lost all six of its matches so far, and now hosts Pachuca at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, a visitor that isn't exactly brimming with confidence either, but one that at least has five points and an even goal balance.

Juárez's record in the tournament stands at 0 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses, with just 3 goals scored against 19 conceded. The recent form doesn't help either: of the last five matches, the club won one and lost the other four. Pachuca, meanwhile, sits in 15th place with 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in the tournament (8 goals for, 8 against), arriving after a stretch of ups and downs: a loss, a win, a loss and two draws in its last five matches. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 5 points, confirming that this is, for all practical purposes, a bottom-table battle.

It's worth separating those numbers from another sample in the data: playing at home in the 2026 Liga MX, over three matches, Juárez has scored 0.66 goals per game and conceded 2.66, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score most often between the 31st and 45th minutes. Pachuca, in that same reference but on the road, averages 1.34 goals for and 0.66 against over three matches, with a 33% clean sheet rate and its most productive stretch coming between the 76th and 90th minutes. These are figures from a small sample and differ from the tournament record, so they should be read as a trend, not a substitute for the standings.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor the home side either: of 8 meetings, Pachuca has won 4, Juárez 2, with 2 draws, and Pachuca has scored 15 goals to Juárez's 10.

Probable lineups

For Juárez, with medium reliability based on recent lineup patterns, a projected XI has Sebastián Jurado in goal, a back line of Jesús Murillo, Javier Aquino, Francisco Nevárez and Gilberto Sepúlveda, and a midfield of José Luis Rodríguez, Denzell García, Jairo Torres, Guilherme Castilho and Madson, with Óscar Estupiñán as the focal point up top. Estupiñán, in fact, shows up as Juárez's top home scorer in the trend sample, with 2 goals, followed by José Luis Rodríguez with 1.

Pachuca, with a higher-reliability estimated lineup, looks set to go with Carlos Moreno between the posts, a back four of Sergio Barreto, Carlos Sánchez, Eduardo Bauermann and Mauricio Isaís, a midfield of Alán Bautista, Elías Montiel and Christian Rivera, and an attacking trio of Oussama Idrissi, Salomón Rondón and Kenedy. Rondón, with 6 goals in the away trend sample, is the name to watch.

What the numbers say

Our model, which is an in-house estimate and not a betting line, gives Pachuca a 45% chance of winning, against 28% for Juárez and 27% for a draw: the visitor is favored, but this isn't a match locked into a single outcome. Total expected goals sit around 2.89, and the trends back that up: a 50% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 44% chance both teams score.

With Juárez desperate for its first points and Pachuca looking to pull away from the relegation zone, the clash at the Benito Juárez has all the makings of a game with goals, even if the numbers lean toward the visiting side.