Köln and Hoffenheim look to snap losing skids in high scoring Bundesliga clash

1. FC Köln comes into this Bundesliga matchup with just one win in its last five games, and needs to snap a stretch that includes three losses in that same span. Standing across from them will be TSG Hoffenheim, which isn't exactly overflowing with sharpness either but arrives in slightly better shape: two wins and only two losses in its last five. RheinEnergieSTADION will host a match that promises goals on both ends, judging by the numbers both teams are carrying into it.

Köln's recent form paints an uneven picture heading into this one: loss, draw, loss, loss and win, in that order. The home side averages 1.76 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game, with a clean sheet in just 6% of its matches, a number that confirms clean sheets are a rare sight in Cologne. Saïd El Mala is by far the club's top scorer with 13 goals, followed by Ragnar Ache with 7 and Luca Waldschmidt with 5. On top of that, Köln tends to look more dangerous between the 76th and 90th minutes, right when games get decided.

Hoffenheim, for its part, comes off a win, loss, loss, draw and win in its last five. Its offensive numbers are practically a mirror image of its opponent's: 1.76 goals scored per game, though it concedes a bit more, 1.82 on average, and keeps a clean sheet in 18% of its matches, more than triple Köln's rate. Andrej Kramaric leads the attack with 14 goals, joined by Fisnik Asllani with 10 and Tim Lemperle with 8. Unlike the home side, the visitors tend to show more danger early, in the 31st to 45th minute window.

The head to head record between the two sides is fairly even: of the 8 matches played, Köln has won 3, there have been 3 draws and Hoffenheim has won 2, with a tight goal tally as well (13 to 12 in the home side's favor). So far, there's no clear dominant side in this matchup.

Probable lineups

For this match, Köln could go with Marvin Schwäbe in goal, a back line made up of Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, Cenk Özkacar, Sebastian Sebulonsen and Kristoffer Lund, and a midfield featuring Alessio Castro-Montes, Saïd El Mala, Marius Bülter, Jakub Kaminski, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson and Eric Martel. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, with medium reliability, and not an official confirmation.

Hoffenheim, following that same logic, could field Oliver Baumann between the posts, a back line with Vladimír Coufal, Albian Hajdari, Ozan Kabak and Bernardo, and a midfield of Leon Avdullahu, Wouter Burger, Nathan De Cat, Adam Hlozek and Fisnik Asllani, with Tim Lemperle up top as the reference forward. This too is a projection, not a confirmed starting eleven.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model points to a tight match, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

The 41% in Hoffenheim's favor isn't enough to call it a clear favorite, and Köln's 33% leaves the door wide open for a home upset. Expected goals, according to our own estimate, sit at 1.53 for Köln and 1.73 for Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.26 that backs up the trends: a 74% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance both teams find the net. It's worth noting these percentages are our own estimate and not a betting line.

With two attacks scoring at almost the same clip and two defenses that give up goals easily, everything points to a back and forth match at RheinEnergieSTADION, where whichever side holds up better in the closing minutes could walk away with all three points.