Köln hosts Schalke 04 with history and the standings on its side

Some games are played for points as much as for regional pride, and this is one of them. 1. FC Köln hosts FC Schalke 04 at RheinEnergieSTADION in the Bundesliga, with both clubs stuck in the lower half of the table and in need of a win to climb out of it.

Köln sits in 12th place with 7 points through six matchdays: two wins, one draw and three losses, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. The recent run hasn't helped either, with just one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five outings. Schalke 04, for its part, is a notch lower in 15th, with 5 points (one win, two draws and three losses, 4 goals scored and 7 conceded). Their recent form isn't inspiring much confidence either: a draw, a win, another draw and two losses in their last five games. The gap between the two sides is just 2 points in the standings, so the real distance is minimal despite the five places separating them.

It's also worth looking at how each team performs at home and away this Bundesliga season. Köln, playing at home, averages 2 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game across a sample of three matches, with no clean sheets, and tends to score between the 61st and 75th minutes. Saïd El Mala and Thijs Dallinga lead the way in that sample with two goals apiece. Schalke, playing on the road, averages 1.34 goals scored and 2 conceded across their three away matches, also without a clean sheet, and tends to score early, between the 16th and 30th minutes. Max Wöber, Kenan Karaman and Robin Gosens stand out there, with one goal each.

A head-to-head record that favors the home side

The history between these two clubs is lopsided: of the 8 meetings on record, Köln won 6, there were 2 draws and Schalke has yet to win a single one. The goal difference tells the same story: 14 for Köln against just 4 for Schalke.

Probable lineups

For this match, René Wagner's Köln could field, in an estimated lineup with low reliability based on recent selections, Marvin Schwäbe in goal; Luka Lochoshvili, Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, Alessio Castro-Montes and Gideon Mensah across the back line; Linton Maina, Tom Krauß, Ísak Jóhannesson and Ellyes Skhiri in midfield; and Saïd El Mala alongside Marius Bülter up top.

Miron Muslic's Schalke 04, with medium reliability in this projection, could line up with Loris Karius between the posts; Nikola Katic, Hasan Kuruçay and Timo Becker in defense; Soufiane El-Faouzi, Robin Gosens and Satoshi Tanaka in midfield; and an attacking group featuring Adil Aouchiche, Kenan Karaman, Moussa Sylla and Junior Adamu.

What the probabilities say

Our model gives Köln a slight edge for playing at home, though it's not overwhelming: the gap against a draw and against an away win is tight.

The expected goals figures back that reading: 1.44 for Köln and 1.05 for Schalke, for an estimated total of 2.49. These numbers come from our own model, not a betting line, but they line up with other trends: an 83% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams find the net.

With recent head-to-head history favoring Köln and the numbers in the standings this tight, everything points to a game that's even on paper, though with home-field advantage tipping things slightly in Köln's favor. RheinEnergieSTADION will have the final say.