LA Galaxy host San Jose Earthquakes in MLS clash of contrasts

Dignity Health Sports Park hosts an MLS matchup with clear contrasts in the Western Conference standings: LA Galaxy are trying to halt a slide that has them in the lower half of the table, while San Jose Earthquakes arrive as one of the hottest teams in the conference with hopes of climbing even further.

How the teams arrive

LA Galaxy sit 13th in the West with 22 points, the product of 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in 20 matches played, with 24 goals scored and 30 allowed. Their immediate form is concerning: they haven't won any of their last five matches, going three losses and two draws in that stretch. They're averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 allowed per game, and have kept a clean sheet in just 20% of their matches. Joao Klauss is their top scorer with 5 goals, followed by Marco Reus and Joseph Paintsil with 4 apiece.

San Jose Earthquakes, meanwhile, sit fourth in the group with 33 points, backed by 10 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in 19 matches, with a notable offensive output of 38 goals scored and 27 allowed. The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 11 points. Still, San Jose's recent form shows some cracks too: just one win in their last five matches, with three losses and a draw in that span. Even so, their scoring average of 2.217 goals per game ranks among the best in the league, and Preston Judd leads their attack with 11 goals, followed by Timo Werner and Ousseni Bouda with 5 each.

Head to head

The recent head to head record clearly favors LA Galaxy: of the 8 matches played between the two sides, the California club won 5, there were 2 draws and San Jose came out on top just once, with a combined scoreline of 17 goals for the home side against 10 for the visitors. That's worth noting despite the host's uneven current form.

Possible lineups

In a probable lineup, not yet confirmed, LA Galaxy could field JT Marcinkowski in goal, with a back line of John Nelson, Jakob Glesnes, Harbor Tarczynski-Miller and Miki Yamane, plus Maya Yoshida as a rotation option. In midfield, Joseph Paintsil, Justin Haak, Lucas Sanabria and Elijah Wynder could feature, with Marco Reus up top as the attacking focal point.

San Jose, also on an estimated basis, would line up with Angus Gunn between the posts, with Reid Roberts, Benji Kikanovic, Daniel Munie and Jamar Ricketts across the back. The midfield would be made up of Beau Leroux, Ousseni Bouda, Ronaldo Vieira, Timo Werner and Nick Fernandez, with Preston Judd leading the line.

Odds and expected numbers

EnPelotas' statistical model tips the visitors as favorites, though not by an overwhelming margin:

The numbers show that while San Jose start out with the better odds, a draw and a home win combine for more than 50%, meaning this is far from a foregone conclusion. Expected goals, another in-house model estimate, split at 1.27 for LA Galaxy and 1.81 for San Jose, for a projected total of 3.08 goals. These figures are an internal projection and should not be mistaken for betting odds. Add to that trends pointing to an open game: a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance both teams score.

With an LA Galaxy side in need of results and a San Jose team looking to recapture its best form after an uneven stretch, the matchup in Carson promises goals from both sides and an outcome that, according to the numbers, is far from settled.