Real Sociedad host a Levante side looking to spring a surprise at Anoeta

Anoeta hosts a clash between two sides close in the standings but with very different outlooks right now: Real Sociedad, fifth with 16 points, arrive full of confidence on the back of four wins in their last five LaLiga matches, while Levante, twelfth with 10, are trying to build momentum after a draw and a win in their last two games.

The San Sebastian club has posted a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses so far this campaign, with 17 goals scored and 17 conceded across nine matches played. That even goal difference does not tell the whole story: the team has been far sharper of late, with four wins and just one draw in its last five games. At home this LaLiga season, across a sample of four matches, Real Sociedad has averaged 1.26 goals scored and 1.508 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 25 percent of those matches, and tends to do its damage in the first 15 minutes. In that same sample, Luka Sucic leads the way with three goals, followed by Mikel Oyarzabal and Ander Barrenetxea with two apiece.

Levante, for their part, have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses this season, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded in nine matches. On the road this season, across five matches analyzed, the Valencian side has averaged just 0.396 goals scored per game against 1.404 conceded, though it has surprised with clean sheets in 40 percent of its away matches, and its most productive scoring window comes between the 31st and 45th minutes. Roger Brugué tops that sample with five goals, ahead of Iván Romero with three and Adrián de la Fuente with two.

In the standings, the gap between the two sides is 6 points, a margin that reflects the home side's strong current form more than any huge difference in overall quality. The head to head record doesn't show a clear edge either: in 8 meetings, Real Sociedad has won 3, there have been 2 draws and Levante has won 3, with the home side scoring 9 goals and the visitors 8 across that history.

Possible lineups

For this match, Real Sociedad could field a lineup with Álex Remiro in goal, a back line of Jon Martín, Sergio Gómez and Mamadou Sarr, and names like Carlos Soler, Gonçalo Guedes, Jon Gorrotxategi and Ander Barrenetxea in midfield, with Mikel Oyarzabal and Luka Sucic leading the attack. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, with low reliability according to our data.

Levante, with a medium reliability estimate, could go with Mathew Ryan in goal, a back line made up of Manu Sánchez, Adrián de la Fuente, Jeremy Toljan and Aïssa Mandi, a midfield of Roger Brugué, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Thiago Fernández and Oriol Rey, and Iván Romero as the main striker.

What do the odds say?

Our model gives a clear, though not overwhelming, edge to Real Sociedad:

The breakdown makes Real Sociedad the favorite, but leaves no room for complacency: the draw and an away win combine for 43 percent, a far from negligible chance for Levante. The expected goals also point to a match with chances at both ends: 2.24 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors, a combined 3.56 that lines up with the 57 percent our model assigns to the match going over 2.5 goals. The probability of both teams scoring, however, is lower, at just 20 percent. All of this, it's worth clarifying, is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Real Sociedad looking to extend its good run at home and a Levante side that needs points on the road to avoid losing ground, Anoeta has the makings of a match with goals at both ends.