Real Sociedad hosts Deportivo at Anoeta as the favorite

The table has them almost shoulder to shoulder: Real Sociedad sit eighth with 10 points, while Deportivo de A Coruña sit just ahead in seventh with that same 10 points but a better goal difference. That virtual tie in the LaLiga standings sums up what to expect this weekend at Estadio Municipal de Anoeta: a clash between two mid-table sides who need points to keep pace with the upper half of the table.

The Basque side arrives with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses so far this season, with 9 goals scored and 13 allowed, a negative balance that weighs on them. Over their last five matches they have picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an uneven stretch that included a draw, a win, back to back losses and a more recent victory to close out that run. Deportivo, meanwhile, come in a bit sturdier: 2 wins, 4 draws and just 1 loss on the season, with 10 goals scored and 8 allowed. In their last five outings they collected two wins, two draws and one loss, including two straight wins to open that sample.

Looking only at Real Sociedad's home form in this LaLiga campaign, based on a small sample of just 3 matches, the team averages 0.677 goals scored and 1.33 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 33% of those matches and a tendency to score within the first 15 minutes. On the other side, Deportivo on the road in that same 3-match sample average 1.657 goals scored and 1.33 allowed, with no clean sheets at all, and their most productive stretch coming between the 76th and 90th minutes. These are small-sample, situation-specific numbers, so they should be treated as a reference point rather than a certainty.

What the head-to-head says

The two sides have met 8 times, with 3 wins for Real Sociedad, 4 draws and just 1 win for Deportivo. In terms of total goals, the home side has scored 14 to the Galicians' 10, a slight edge that lines up with what matches at Anoeta have typically shown.

Possible lineups

For Real Sociedad, the projected XI (low reliability based on recent matches) would likely feature Álex Remiro in goal, a back line of Sergio Gómez, Jon Aramburu, Jon Martín and Luken Beitia, a midfield of Carlos Soler, Yangel Herrera, Ander Barrenetxea and Gonçalo Guedes, and up front Mikel Oyarzabal alongside Luka Sucic, who also tops the scoring chart in the recent home sample with 3 goals.

Deportivo, with a medium-reliability projected lineup, would go with Leo Román between the posts, a line of Ximo Navarro, Giacomo Quagliata, José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi, a midfield of Mario Soriano, Lorenzo Amatucci, Luismi Cruz and Riki Rodríguez, and an attacking pair of Bil Nsongo and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has racked up 5 goals in the away-form sample.

What do the numbers say?

Our model gives Real Sociedad a certain edge for playing at home, though it's not an overwhelming difference.

The expected goals figures back that up: 1.79 for Real Sociedad versus 1.07 for Deportivo, for an estimated total of 2.86 goals in the match. On top of that, the probability of more than 2.5 goals sits at 50%, while the chance of both teams scoring stands at 33%, suggesting a game with modest but real scoring potential. This is, in any case, an in-house estimate and not a betting line.

With both teams separated by just one spot in the standings and both in need of points, the match at Anoeta should be a hard-fought affair from start to finish, with Real Sociedad looking to make the most of home advantage and Deportivo trying to maintain the consistency that has kept them unbeaten through much of their recent form.