LDU Quito Storms Back with Late Estrada Brace, But Palmeiras Advances on Penalties

Michael Estrada thought he had pulled off a legendary comeback at Rodrigo Paz Delgado. His brace late in the match, with goals in the 89th and 92nd minutes, flipped a game LDU Quito had been losing and put them up 3-2 over Palmeiras. But in knockout soccer, the 90-minute scoreline doesn't always tell the final story: the tie had to be settled on penalties, and there Palmeiras came out on top 4-3 to book its spot in the quarterfinals of the Copa Libertadores. LDU Quito, despite winning the match, is out.

The opening stretch was a quick strike followed by an almost immediate reply. Palmeiras got on the board early, in the 9th minute, when Marlon Freitas finished from close range off a corner kick. LDU Quito wasted no time answering: five minutes later, in the 14th, Luis Segovia rose to head the ball into the top corner off a cross from Lucas Rodriguez, which had also come from a corner. The 1-1 score settled the match down, and the teams went into the break level.

The second half appeared to be heading toward the outcome we had flagged as most likely in our preview. In the 70th minute, Richard Mina committed a handball penalty inside the box, and two minutes later Vitor Roque converted it to make it 1-2 for Palmeiras. That scoreline held deep into stoppage time, with LDU Quito pushing for an equalizer but unable to find the breakthrough.

Then came the late explosion. In the 89th minute, Estrada scored from point-blank range, low into the net, to make it 2-2 and set off Rodrigo Paz Delgado. Barely three minutes later, deep into second-half stoppage time, Estrada struck again, heading home a cross from Alexander Alvarado to make it 3-2. The home side found itself ahead just as the clock was about to run out.

The shootout that changed everything

That 3-2 scoreline didn't settle the tie. Everything had to be decided from twelve yards, and there Palmeiras was sharper, winning the penalty shootout 4-3. LDU Quito missed with Lucas Rodriguez, while Palmeiras' only miss came from Lucas Evangelista; Felipe Anderson sealed it by converting the final penalty. So despite winning the match, LDU Quito was eliminated, and Palmeiras moves on in the Copa Libertadores.

What the numbers say

LDU Quito controlled possession and generated more volume of play, though efficiency was split evenly between the two sides.

Based on our xG estimate calculated from the match's shots, Palmeiras generated 1.918 expected goals to LDU Quito's 1.666, a minimal difference that reflects just how even the contest was despite the home side's territorial dominance.

The result also strayed from what we projected in our preview. We had given Palmeiras a 50% chance of winning, to 19% for the home side and 31% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.36 for the visitors and 0.76 for the home team. The match ended with more goals than projected on both sides, and with an outcome none of those numbers could have anticipated: a spot in the next round decided from the penalty spot, after the team that lost on the scoreboard ended up celebrating the last play of stoppage time.

For LDU Quito, there's the bitter feeling of a comeback that wasn't quite enough. Palmeiras, which had arrived with a 1-0 win from the first leg, held its course in this round and advances despite losing the second leg, leaving Rodrigo Paz Delgado with one of those nights where the scoreline and the final result tell two very different stories.