Palmeiras Edges LDU Quito in Quarterfinal First Leg on Giay Header

A header from Agustin Giay in the 25th minute was enough for Palmeiras to take the opening leg of this Copa Libertadores quarterfinal: 1-0 over LDU Quito at Nubank Parque. The scoreline looks tight given what unfolded on the field, as the Brazilian side spent all 90 minutes knocking on Gonzalo Valle's door without ever adding to the lead.

The match started choppy, with plenty of fouls breaking up the rhythm (LDU Quito picked up bookings early, with Michael Estrada and Fernando Cornejo both cautioned inside the first half hour), and Palmeiras tested the waters first through Jhon Arias, who drew a solid save from Valle as early as the 7th minute. The home side's pressure kept building: Marlon Freitas also threatened with a header, while Michael Estrada answered for LDU Quito with two attempts between the 10th and 11th minutes, the only serious shots the Ecuadorian side could string together in the entire match.

The goal arrived as a natural result of the pressure. Just two minutes earlier, Vitor Roque had already tested Valle with a low shot that the keeper saved. Then in the 25th minute, on another attack into the box, Agustin Giay connected with a header from the center of the area to make it 1-0, sending the ball into the top right corner with no chance for the Ecuadorian goalkeeper. With that goal, Palmeiras went into the break in front, backed by a first-half statistical dominance that told the same story.

The second half followed a similar script: Palmeiras kept creating chances, with Jose Manuel Lopez, Joaquin Piquerez, Murilo and Giay himself all getting looks, but Valle and the LDU Quito defense held firm. The introduction of Heittor for Vitor Roque in the 78th minute gave the home side another attacking option, and they had one more shot in the 90th minute without managing to add a second goal. LDU Quito, with substitutions from Jose Carabali, Juanse, Alexander Alvarado, Sebastian Gonzalez and Deyverson, tried to push forward, but never seriously troubled the goal defended by Palmeiras.

The numbers behind the dominance

Palmeiras' superiority showed up clearly in possession and shot volume, far outpacing anything LDU Quito could muster over the course of the match.

The 28 shots taken by the home side against just 6 from the visitors make it clear who controlled the match. According to our post-match xG estimate based on shot location, Palmeiras generated 2.69 expected goals compared with 0.84 for LDU Quito, a gap that suggests the scoreline could have been far more lopsided if not for Valle's saves and the home side's finishing.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Palmeiras a 60% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 13% for LDU Quito, with expected goals of 1.67 for the home side and 0.66 for the visitors. The final result lined up with that forecast: the favorite won, though by a narrower margin than its chances created would have suggested.

How they got here

Both teams' paths through the round of 16 were evenly matched in results. Palmeiras drew 1-1 at home against Cerro Porteno and then won 1-0 on the road to advance. LDU Quito, for its part, drew 1-1 away against Mirassol before closing it out with a 0-0 draw at home. Neither side, then, arrived with a clear edge in recent form, something this match ended up settling on the field.

With this result, Palmeiras takes a slim advantage into the second leg of this quarterfinal, though the gap in chances created leaves the sense that the scoreline could have been more decisive. LDU Quito, which managed just one shot on target in the entire match, will need to turn things around in the second leg to keep its hopes alive in the tie.