Last-place Lens hosts red-hot Como riding five-game win streak

Lens enters this match with one clear idea: it has to win, no matter how. Yannick Cahuzac's side sits 27th in the Champions League league phase, with just three points from three games and a goal difference of minus 4. Standing in the way will be Cesc Fabregas's Como, tenth in the table with six points, in a match to be played at Stade Felix Bollaert-Delelis.

Lens's numbers in the tournament are worrying: one win, two losses, three goals scored and seven conceded. Over its last five matches things haven't improved much either: two wins and three losses, alternating results without finding any consistency. Como, on the other hand, comes into this one red hot. Its record in the competition stands at two wins and one loss, with ten goals scored and five conceded, and over its last five matches it has reeled off five straight wins. That's the best recent form streak either side can claim right now.

It's also worth looking at how each side has performed specifically in this Champions League campaign, though the sample is small at just three games apiece. Lens, across home and away matches, is averaging just 1 goal scored per game and conceding 2.33, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those matches, with its most productive scoring window coming between the 76th and 90th minutes. Como, in the same competition and over the same number of games, is scoring 3.33 goals per match and conceding 1.67, with its best scoring stretch between the 46th and 60th minutes. These figures can't be directly compared to overall tournament averages, but they do help paint a picture of the contrasting momentum between the two sides.

As for the top scorers in that sample, Tasos Douvikas stands out as Como's main attacking threat with three goals, followed by Assane Diao and Nico Paz with two apiece. For Lens, Ruben Aguilar, Abdallah Sima and Florian Thauvin share the lead with one goal each.

Probable lineups

Lens's starting eleven, rated low on reliability based on our estimate from recent matches, would likely feature Robin Risser in goal and a back line of Ruben Aguilar, Samson Baidoo and Jean-Clair Todibo. The midfield would include Michael Cuisance, Matthieu Udol, Saud Abdulhamid and Amadou Haidara, with Florian Thauvin, Florian Sotoca and Franjo Ivanovic up top.

For Como, also a probable lineup, Jean Butez would start in goal, with Marc Oliver Kempf, Yan Couto, Jacobo Ramon and Alex Valle in defense. Luis Milla, Lucas da Cunha, Nico Paz, Martin Baturina and Massimo Perrone would round out the midfield, with Tasos Douvikas leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model doesn't see a match as lopsided as the standings would suggest. Here's how the probabilities break down:

Como comes in as the favorite, but without an overwhelming edge: 41% compared to Lens's 30% and a 29% chance of a draw leave all three outcomes fairly close together. Our expected goals estimate points to a similarly tight scoreline, with 1.26 for Lens and 1.48 for Como, a combined total of 2.74 that backs up the 83% our model gives for the match going over 2.5 goals. That said, this is our own projection and not a betting line.

With those numbers on the table, Lens needs to reverse a trend that has it stuck at the bottom of the standings, while Como will look to extend a run that has put it back in the mix in the league phase.