Leverkusen Hosts Celje in Europa League as 56% Favorite, With Goals Expected From Both Sides

Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosts Celje at the BayArena in a Europa League clash, and the matchup arrives with a number that already hints at how things could unfold: our model projects that both teams should score, with a 75% probability that the game goes over 2.5 total goals. This doesn't look like a cagey affair.

The German side comes in with a mixed run of recent form: over their last five matches they picked up two wins, two draws and a loss, a stretch that opened with a draw, followed by a win, then a defeat in the third match before closing out with another win and another draw. It's not a dominant run, but it's not alarming either. Celje, for their part, arrive even more inconsistent: two wins and three losses in their last five outings, with their most recent match ending in defeat.

Looking at how Leverkusen has performed at home in the Europa League during the 2023 season (a six-match sample, distinct from the tournament's overall record), they averaged 3.5 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of those matches. Patrik Schick and Victor Boniface stand out as the top scorers in that sample, with 5 goals apiece. On the Slovenian side, the available reference comes from their away form in the 2026 season, just three matches: an average of 1.667 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, without a single clean sheet. Mario Kvesic emerges as their main attacking threat in that sample, with 4 goals.

Projected Lineups

With the caveat that this is an estimated lineup carrying low reliability, Bayer 04 Leverkusen, under Carles Martinez, could field Mark Flekken in goal, a back line of Edmond Tapsoba, Jarell Quansah, Miguel Gutierrez and Facundo Medina, a midfield of Ibrahim Maza, Aleix Garcia, Afonso Moreira, Equi Fernandez and Malik Tillman, with Patrik Schick leading the line up top.

Celje, managed by Vitor Campelos, could line up with Zan-Luk Leban between the posts, a back line of Artemijus Tutyskinas, Leonardo Koutris, Pijus Sirvys, Darko Hrka and Milot Avdyli, a midfield of Mark Zabukovnik, Svit Seslar, Benjamin Verbic and Tilen Letonja, with Veton Tusha as the lone forward.

What the Numbers Say Before Kickoff

The favoritism is clear but far from overwhelming: a 56% probability for Leverkusen still leaves considerable room, with a 22% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Celje win, for the visitors to leave the BayArena with something to show for it. These are our own estimates based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. The expected-goals split (2.22 to 1.36, a combined 3.58) also points to a match with chances at both ends, reinforcing the projection of a 100% probability that both teams score, according to our models.

With a home side that tends to produce goals at the BayArena and a visiting team that hasn't managed to keep a clean sheet on the road in the available sample, this match has the makings of something more than a routine formality. The Europa League bracket format leaves no room to relax, and that's precisely where Celje will need to show whether they can sustain the level that helped them win two of their last five matches.