Lille and Galatasaray chase a first Champions League win in an unforgiving competition

Zero points, four combined losses and a goal difference that raises eyebrows: that's the state of affairs as Lille and Galatasaray meet at the Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. In the Champions League league phase both sit at the bottom of the overall standings, tied in 34th and 35th place with zero points, and both badly need a win to avoid falling further off the pace.

Davide Ancelotti's Lille side has played two matches in the competition, lost both, and managed just two goals scored against six conceded. Over their last five matches across all competitions, though, the picture looks different: two wins, one draw and two losses, a stretch that suggests the team isn't in as bad shape as its continental start implies. In this season's Champions League, home and away, the French side has yet to keep a clean sheet (0%), and its most productive scoring window has been the opening 15 minutes, when Alexsandro and Ayase Ueda, the club's only scorers in the competition so far, found the net.

Galatasaray, coached by Okan Buruk, show a similar pattern: two matches played, two defeats, two goals scored and seven conceded in the tournament. Over their last five games, the Turkish side also went two wins, one draw and two losses, a sign that things aren't all bad for them outside of Europe either. In their two Champions League appearances so far, like their opponents, they have failed to keep a clean sheet (0%) and have also scored most frequently in the opening 15 minutes, with Aleksey Batrakov their only scorer in that span.

Likely lineups

Lille's probable XI carries medium confidence: Berke Özer in goal, a back line of Romain Perraud, Nathan Ngoy, Alexsandro and Tiago Santos, and a midfield featuring Hákon Haraldsson, Nabil Bentaleb, Benjamin André, Ngal'ayel Mukau and Dilane Bakwa, with Ayase Ueda leading the line up front.

On the Turkish side, the projected lineup comes with lower confidence, but points to Ugurcan Çakir in goal, a back line with Davinson Sánchez, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Eren Elmali and Roland Sallai, and a crowded midfield group featuring Gabriel Sara, Rafael Leão, Lucas Torreira and Aleksey Batrakov.

What the numbers say

Our model calculates the probabilities for this match as follows:

The breakdown is far from a foregone conclusion: 44% for the home side against 28% each for a draw or a visiting win points to a tight contest, with a slight edge for Lille thanks to home advantage. The expected goals projection backs up that reading: 1.53 for Lille and 1.20 for Galatasaray, a combined 2.73 that suggests the ball could find the net more than once at either end. Worth noting that this is our own projection based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With both teams desperate for their first bit of joy in this Champions League campaign, the meeting in Lille looks like an opportunity neither side can afford to waste.